Conversations with scenario thinker and networker extraordinaire Napier Collyns

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Napier Collyns has long been an eminence grise of the world of foresight, not publicly visible but immensely influential in his ideas and connections, especially through his role as co-founder of Global Business Network and his seminal work as part of the original team at Shell in the 1970s that created modern scenario planning. In my book Living Networks I used him as my case study of the most extraordinary networker I know. He is the closest to a mentor that I have had in my long career as futurist and even before. A memoir of his life is currently being prepared by International Futures Forum.

In 2008 I recorded a video of a conversation with Napier on a diverse array of topics. Below is the video together with a full transcript. It provides deep insights into scenario thinking and how the history of scenario planning has shaped its role in business today, perspectives on the evolution of human networks and networking and assistance in the “gentle art of re-perceiving”.

Conversation: Napier Collyns and Ross Dawson from Ross Dawson on Vimeo.

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A huge holographic woman points at actor Ryan Gosling's character in the film Blade Runner 2049.

How Philip K. Dick anticipated the Zeitgeist of the 21st Century: 10 movies based on his work

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Even if you have never read his science-fiction writings or even know his name, chances are you’ve watched a film or TV series inspired by Philip K. Dick. Nearly four decades after his death, Dick’s body of work, which includes 44 published novels and more than 120 short stories, continues to influence popular culture.

In fact, his exceptionally vivid tales questioning the nature of reality have spawned several adaptations. A few became cult hits. Some achieved critical and commercial success. Others flopped and quickly vanished from mainstream memory.

Yet although Dick has left this earthly plane, here we share ten notable films that prove his power to provoke and fascinate the human mind has undoubtedly grown over the years. (Warning: Minor spoilers ahead.)

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The future of dating: VR dates, AI wingmen, DNA compatibility, facial recognition

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This morning on the occasion of Valentine’s Day I appeared on the Today Extra TV show to talk about the future of dating.

Watch the segment below.

Some of the highlights from our conversation (plus some more detail):
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It is time to share more of myself

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I have recently substantially changed my activities so I am far more focused.

I have for too long had too many ventures. I desperately needed to limit the scope of what I was doing, which I have done. (More on that in another blog post soon.)

Focus on the future

This allows me to focus on being the futurist, thinking and communicating in multiple formats about the future and what we need to do now to create the future we want.

It also gives me that modicum of space to come back to the path of self-discovery that is at the heart of all our lives.
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Mapping the adoption curve of brain implants

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A new study has demonstrated that people who have brain implants (the research used epileptics who already have implants to control their ailment) can have their memory improved using electrical impulses controlled by AI.

Brain implants to help the disabled

Brain implants have for years now been used to assist those with neurological disease to control their environment, for example the groundbreaking Braingate project shown in the video below.


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Why there will ALWAYS be work for humans

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There is massive uncertainty on the future impact of artificial intelligence.

Among those who we can consider the ‘experts’ – the most qualified on the planet to judge – there are deep disagreements on the potential for general artificial intelligence, the evolution of work, whether AI is an existential threat to humanity, and almost every other aspect of the impact of AI.

Let us leave aside for now the full scope of the future relationship between humans and machines.

On the subject of work, I have frequently found myself bemused by the many people who appear to believe that machines will before long do all work, leaving nothing for humans to do other than hopefully bask in the leisure we have.

While it is possible that fewer people will be in gainful employment (which is not a given, more on that in another post), I don’t believe we will ever have a world of no human work, for many reasons.

What is ‘work’?

Our views on what work is clearly need to evolve for a changing world.
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About getting predictions wrong as a futurist (and how to create the future you want)

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Over the years I have created a lot of content – books, reports, visual frameworks and far more – that has been very widely seen. From all this undoubtedly the one piece that has been the most visible globally is my Newspaper Extinction Timeline launched in October 2010, that predicted for each country in which year newspapers in their then-current form would become “insignificant”.

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Coverage in over 100 major publications from more than 30 countries helped to garner many, many millions of views, attract critics galore, and generate substantial debate.
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6 characteristics of education of the future and how credentials will change

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The Commonwealth Bank Jobs and Skills of the Future Report I wrote recently dug into how work and jobs are changing and what skills will be required. These shifts in work mean it is crystal clear that education must also change.

Below is an excerpt from the report giving a snapshot of some of the shifts needed in education:

Education of the Future

Looking further into the future of education, we may see a radical restructuring of how we learn, not just in schools and universities, but through our entire life. Classrooms will continue to exist, enhanced through the use of a wide range of new tools, technologies and methodologies. Education will also become an ongoing part of everyone’s lives, and embedded into our employment, helping us improve our skills and capabilities while we work.
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A practical strategy framework to drive useful action and high performance

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Last week I ran a three-day strategy workshop in Dubai for a group of senior executives who are marked as the next generation of leaders in a global professional services firm.

The heart of the workshop used scenario thinking to broaden their perspectives on change and strategic opportunity in their industry. We also wanted to provide a useful framework for the executives to develop and implement effective strategies for their respective country operations.

I was not able to find any strategy frameworks that were sufficiently relevant and pragmatic, so created a summary framework designed to be useful to any executives or entrepreneurs who need to develop practical, actionable strategies. I distilled the approaches and frames I have been successfully using for facilitating strategy development over the years with many executive groups, bringing it together into a succinct 6-step guide.

See below the diagram for a detailed explanation of the framework.

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The potential and dangers of the ‘autonomous economy’ where machines transact with machines

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Australia’s largest bank Commonwealth Bank has just released a very interesting white paper Welcome to the machine-to-machine economy, anticipating machines engaging in financial transactions with other machines or parties, for example hiring and paying for their own maintenance workers. This would require them to have their own bank accounts and payment systems.


Source: Commonwealth Bank
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