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Futurist resources > Prediction markets

Prediction markets and crowdsourced futures

Prediction markets have gained currency over the last 15 years as a tool to enable crowdsourced insights into the future. Below is a list of prediction market platforms and implementations that may be useful for futures studies.

Product Organization Description
Augur Augur Protocol/ The Forecast Foundation Augur is a blockchain-based platform owned by its users. It is used for predicting political outcomes as well as forecasting weather events. It can also be used to predict catastrophic events thereby hedging against disaster. Companies can use Augur for internal forecasts: sales, project completion, trends, etc. The website https://predictions.global/ was independently developed as a homepage for viewing the predictions made using Augur.
Climate Prediction Market Winton Group This market is dedicated to drawing concensus over climate change.
Conjoint.ly Prediction Market Conjoint.ly A market research predicton market which is focused on helping companies engage their customer base.
Crowdsourcing Evidence, Argumentation, Thinking and Evaluation (CREATE) Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA) CREATE is a crowdsourced forecasting project developed by the U.S. intelligence agency IARPA primarily for geo-political forecasting.
Cultivate Forecasts Cultivate Labs Cultivate Forecasts started life as Inkling, one of the premiere prediction markets. Inkling merged with another company to form Cultivate Labs which focuses on internal crowdsourced forcasting, mostly for corporates.
FAZ.NET-Orakel Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung A German prediction market hosted by a German newspaper.
Geopolitical Forecasting (GF) Challenge Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA) IARPA ran a challenge from March 2018 to September 2018 to identify R&D teams who can develop superior forecasting systems that include crowdsourcing. IARPA has been instrumental in supporting prediction markets such as Good Judgement.
Gnosis Trading Interface Peer-to-Peer Gnosis actually has two prediction markets, GTO and Olympia which is their alpha testing ground that grants uses free currency. GTO allows users to trade in prediction markets with real value. Gnosis is also a platform for developers to create their own markets.
Good Judgement Good Judgement Project Dan Gardner and Philip E. Tetlock wrote the book, Superforecasting, and the Good Judgement Project is based on the application of their theories.
Hivemind Peer-to-Peer Hivemind aggregates data and provides a protocol for users to create prediction markets.
Huunu Consensus Point Huunu is the platform used by Consensus Point. Using behavioural science theories, they have progressed market research beyond the 5-point scale. Dr. Robin Hanson, the inventor of the automated prediction market, is chief scientist.
Iowa Electronic Markets The University of Iowa The faculty of the University of Iowa developed this market as a pedagogical tool for engaging students to learn about real-world markets. Students and faculty from over 100 universities around the world wager real money on future economic and political events.
Long Bets The Long Now Foundation Although not a prediction market by definition, The Long Now Foundation established this forum to engage the public with long term thinking. The wagers that are placed are held between two entities rather than selling shares in a prediction as most prediction markets do. The proceeds are donated to charity.
myEdge myEdge Started in 2017, myEdge is a comparison site that allows users to trade in prediction markets on any platform using a single token currency that exchanges to the currency of the target market. Users can therefore therefore trade on multiple prediction markets at the same time without the hassle separate accounts.
Predictious Pixode Games Launched in 2013, Predictious trades in Bitcoin on a variety of topics: sports, politics, economics, entertainment, and science & technology. However, political predictions are currently the most active.
PredictIt Victoria University PredictIt sells shares in different predictions. It is primarily used for predicting political outcomes, but they also facilitate financial predictions.
Prediki Prediki Prediki offers participants prize money for sponsored questions. It also collects comments from participants to provide clients with qualitative reasons for why participants have chosen their predictions.
Sauder School of Business Prediction Markets Sauder School of Business UBC Sauder uses prediction markets on political outcomes in Canada to teach students about financial markets, politics, and current events.

Product
Augur
Organization
Augur Protocol/ The Forecast Foundation
Description
Augur is a blockchain-based platform owned by its users. It is used for predicting political outcomes as well as forecasting weather events. It can also be used to predict catastrophic events thereby hedging against disaster. Companies can use Augur for internal forecasts: sales, project completion, trends, etc. The website https://predictions.global/ was independently developed as a homepage for viewing the predictions made using Augur.
Product
Climate Prediction Market
Organization
Winton Group
Description
This market is dedicated to drawing concensus over climate change.
Product
Conjoint.ly Prediction Market
Organization
Conjoint.ly
Description
A market research predicton market which is focused on helping companies engage their customer base.
Product
Crowdsourcing Evidence, Argumentation, Thinking and Evaluation (CREATE)
Organization
Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA)
Description
CREATE is a crowdsourced forecasting project developed by the U.S. intelligence agency IARPA primarily for geo-political forecasting.
Product
Cultivate Forecasts
Organization
Cultivate Labs
Description
Cultivate Forecasts started life as Inkling, one of the premiere prediction markets. Inkling merged with another company to form Cultivate Labs which focuses on internal crowdsourced forcasting, mostly for corporates.
Product
FAZ.NET-Orakel
Organization
Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung
Description
A German prediction market hosted by a German newspaper.
Product
Geopolitical Forecasting (GF) Challenge
Organization
Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA)
Description
IARPA ran a challenge from March 2018 to September 2018 to identify R&D teams who can develop superior forecasting systems that include crowdsourcing. IARPA has been instrumental in supporting prediction markets such as Good Judgement.
Product
Gnosis Trading Interface
Organization
Peer-to-Peer
Description
Gnosis actually has two prediction markets, GTO and Olympia which is their alpha testing ground that grants uses free currency. GTO allows users to trade in prediction markets with real value. Gnosis is also a platform for developers to create their own markets.
Product
Good Judgement
Organization
Good Judgement Project
Description
Dan Gardner and Philip E. Tetlock wrote the book, Superforecasting, and the Good Judgement Project is based on the application of their theories.
Product
Hivemind
Organization
Peer-to-Peer
Description
Hivemind aggregates data and provides a protocol for users to create prediction markets.
Product
Huunu
Organization
Consensus Point
Description
Huunu is the platform used by Consensus Point. Using behavioural science theories, they have progressed market research beyond the 5-point scale. Dr. Robin Hanson, the inventor of the automated prediction market, is chief scientist.
Product
Iowa Electronic Markets
Organization
The University of Iowa
Description
The faculty of the University of Iowa developed this market as a pedagogical tool for engaging students to learn about real-world markets. Students and faculty from over 100 universities around the world wager real money on future economic and political events.
Product
Long Bets
Organization
The Long Now Foundation
Description
Although not a prediction market by definition, The Long Now Foundation established this forum to engage the public with long term thinking. The wagers that are placed are held between two entities rather than selling shares in a prediction as most prediction markets do. The proceeds are donated to charity.
Product
myEdge
Organization
myEdge
Description
Started in 2017, myEdge is a comparison site that allows users to trade in prediction markets on any platform using a single token currency that exchanges to the currency of the target market. Users can therefore therefore trade on multiple prediction markets at the same time without the hassle separate accounts.
Product
Predictious
Organization
Pixode Games
Description
Launched in 2013, Predictious trades in Bitcoin on a variety of topics: sports, politics, economics, entertainment, and science & technology. However, political predictions are currently the most active.
Product
PredictIt
Organization
Victoria University
Description
PredictIt sells shares in different predictions. It is primarily used for predicting political outcomes, but they also facilitate financial predictions.
Product
Prediki
Organization
Prediki
Description
Prediki offers participants prize money for sponsored questions. It also collects comments from participants to provide clients with qualitative reasons for why participants have chosen their predictions.
Product
Sauder School of Business Prediction Markets
Organization
Sauder School of Business
Description
UBC Sauder uses prediction markets on political outcomes in Canada to teach students about financial markets, politics, and current events.