From news-on-paper to news-on-many-channels

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I’m officially on holidays, but back at home between a family Christmas and beach sojourn and doing quite a few interviews as I go, so I’ll slip in a quick blog post or two. :-)

Yesterday I was interviewed by Toronto radio station Newstalk 1010 about the future (or lack thereof) of newspapers, coming off the news that New York Times has sold its regional newspapers.

They of course wanted me to talk about my Newspaper Extinction Timeline from last year, and I ran through some of the economic reasons why remnant demand for newspapers doesn’t necessarily mean there will continue to be supply.
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Fantastic international comparative data on media, social media, and mobile

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For those who love rich data on the world of media and telecoms, the release of a report by UK telecommunications regulator Ofcom is always a cause for celebration.

Last year I covered some of Ofcom’s report on key trends on communication and media usage. Here I will excerpt a few of the highlights from today’s Ofcom International Communications Market Report 2011, which focuses on country comparative data. There is an absolute wealth of information in the report. The data below is a small selection that I found particularly noteworthy, with some brief comments.


Global telecoms sector revenue has flattened considerably, with just 2.2% growth last year, brought down by performance in major markets. Interestingly television revenue continues to increase at a healthy pace beyond GDP growth.
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Launching my new book today! Getting Results From Crowds

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Today we are launching my new book Getting Results From Crowds: The definitive guide to using crowdsourcing to grow your business!

This has been, in all, many years in the planning and making, and I’m extremely happy with how it has come out. It is definitely my most useful book, and while it’s hard to compare it with my other books as it has a distinct purpose and design, it is in some ways my best work.

I’ve believed in, followed, and worked with crowds for over a decade. My 2002 book Living Networks had many examples of what we currently call crowdsourcing, including being the first of many business books to describe the Goldcorp challenge, and mentions of Elance, InnoCentive, and Procter & Gamble’s Connect & Develop program, before any were well-known.

Today much of my work is around the future of work and future of organizations. The most powerful single force shaping work and organizations is the rise of distributed work, often drawing on crowds. I have used crowdsourcing platforms extensively for the last decade, and studied and learned how to get the best results from these. Our group business model is centered on the effective use of crowds.

The Getting Results From Crowds book website has a whole stack of resources, including:
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Open strategy: News Limited shares its inspirations on the future of paid content

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Early this year I caught up for a coffee with Stephen Browning, Director of Corporate Affairs at News Digital Media and The Australian. During our conversation he told me about a weekly digest of what’s happening globally in digital news and paid content that he compiled for executives at News Limited, to keep them informed about all of many rapid changes in the space.

In the wake of News Limited’s recent blogger briefing on its paywall plan, which showed a dramatically more open attitude than the company had evinced in the past, it is now making its internal business intelligence report available to the general public.

Anyone can sign up for the weekly update at its Future of Journalism site. There is of course no really good reason why a company wouldn’t share with the world its internal business intelligence reports. However the reality is that almost none do. So once again hats off to News Limited for sharing this useful information with the world at large.

Below is the latest update from earlier today, showing the most interesting developments in paid content over the previous week, from the perspective of News Limited. (Apologies if the formatting doesn’t work properly – I just pulled in the HTML.)
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The liberation of music for consumers and musicians

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At the Canon CIO event I spoke at last week, jazz trumpeter extraordinaire James Morrison and his band played music through the event.

James also gave a brief presentation on the event’s theme of the future. He said that not so long ago music was not chosen by consumers, but pushed on us by record companies, who selected artists and controlled radio airplay. Only those musicians who fitted established criteria of attractiveness, age, music style, and so on had any chance of being heard.

Fortunately things have changed. He gave the example of Andy McKee, who is not highly attractive, can’t sing, and is a solo guitar player. McKee and many, many other musicians, have reached out to listeners directly. His YouTube videos have been seen by tens of millions of people. His revenue now includes performing, a record deal, ads on the YouTube videos, and keen demand for the guitar tablature for his songs. Just a decade ago he probably never would have had an audience beyond the local cafe.


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Revisiting the Newspaper Extinction Timeline on its first anniversary

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The Newspaper Extinction Timeline below was launched one year ago today. It received plenty of attention, getting published in newspapers and other mainstream media in over 30 countries, and being seen well over a million times.

Newspaper_Timeline_front.gif

Click on image to download full framework

Today a commenter on the original post asked me if anything had happened over the last year to make me change my forecasts. The answer, in short, is no.

If you look at the broader factors that we used in assessing the underlying trends, as below, things have played out much as expected.
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How tablets are changing how we consume news

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Pew Research Center’s Project for Excellence in Journalism has just released some great research on how people use tablets (still mainly iPads) to consume news. The infographic below summarizes the findings – click on the image to go through to the original full-size version.

The very short summary is that those who own tablets usually access news on their devices, they access more news than before, and that substitutes for other news sources. However not many are paying for new on their tablets yet.

The survey results, combined with the announcement lower cost tablets such as the Kindle Fire, are entirely consistent with the arguments I made when I released the Newspaper Extinction Timeline, which is now a few days away from its first anniversary.

There are still major uncertainties on issues such as news pricing structures, screen technologies, and device formats, however the trends are clear. News will be accessed where we are, and delivered on screens larger than those on mobile phones.
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The global state of the mobile industry

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Mary Meeker, formerly of Morgan Stanley and now of venture capital firm Kleiner Perkins Caufield Byers, continues to do her annual presentation at Web 2.0 Summit, providing an unparalleled compilation of research about the global internet industry.

There is a lot to digest in the 65 slides of the presentation, so I thought it was worth pulling out some of the more interesting ones on mobile. Below is the full presentation, plus six charts giving insights into the state of the global mobile industry.

KPCB Internet Trends (2011)
Here are the 7 selected charts with brief commentary:
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The latest on the future of journalism: where value creation means jobs

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As part of News Limited’s launch of its digital subscription plans that I wrote about earlier this week, News has just launched the site Future of Journalism, (subtitle: A Discussion Hosted by News Limited).

It includes videos, infographics (very clearly taking a cue from social media here!), and articles. The site says “We have gathered thoughts from some of the leading personnel at News Limited, and engaged a range of industry leading commentators to share their opinions,” so while they are hosting the discussion they are trying to make it far broader.

I suppose the implicit point of the site and discussion it is intended to engender is that for journalism to have a future, it needs to be paid for, so you should pay for their subscription plan.

I was asked to contribute to the site at short notice, so given my schedule I thought it made sense to share my NewsScape visual on where value resides in news today (and thus what you can get people to pay for), and managed to find time on an airplane flight to write a few notes on how this was relevant to journalism.

You can see my article on the Future of Journalism site, or here it is in below in full.

The Future of Journalism

The NewsScape
Click on the image to see large version

Journalism has a rich future. In some ways it will be very similar to its rich and illustrious past. In others it will be very different, reflecting the current fragmentation and restructuring of the world of news. Among other shifts, journalism will encompass not just words, but also images, data, video, visualisations and more.
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Breaking: Details of News Limited’s digital subscription plans

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I am at what would not long ago have been unimaginable for News Limited: a briefing by senior executives for bloggers and social media. What is even more surprising is that social media are getting the scoop on mainstream media in being briefed first.

The executives present include Richard Freudenstein, CEO of The Australian and News Digital Media, Ed Smith, Chief Marketing Officer of New Ltd, and Clive Mathieson, editor of The Australian. Many of the most visible people in social media in Australia are here, including @servantofchaos, @silkcharm, @GaryPHayes, @mediahunter, @tiphereth, and @katydaniells, with @bhowarth and @mumbrella crossing the chasm as both social and mainstream media protagonists.

Here are some notes live at the briefing.
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