“By a name I know not how to tell thee who I am,” laments Romeo to Juliette in one of Shakespeare’s most memorable scenes. A similar complaint about the inadequacy of names is often uttered by today’s “futurists”. Be they futurologists, foresight consultants or futurist thinkers by any other name, of what import is their choice of one term over another?
Formerly fashionable futurologists
Futurologists were all the rage back in the 1960s, ‘70s and ‘80s. In History and Futurology (1966), German professor Ossip Flechtheim saw futurologists as the future-thinking counterparts of historical sociologists. Little did he know that the role of a futurologist would soon burst the boundaries of sociology and become multi-disciplinary in scope.
Given that most “ologies” are specific, testable branches of knowledge, some futures thinkers dislike the name “futurologist”. In an article for Futures journal, futurist Ziaudinn Sardar writes, “The pretension that exploration of the future is, or can be, an exact field of inquiry is both naïve and dangerous.” He points out that people who study alternative futures may be more accurately termed mellontologists, from the Greek word for time, mellon. Unfortunately, the association of mellon with big, juicy fruits means that potential mellontologists might not be taken seriously.
However, not all “ologies” are the precise fields of inquiry that Sardar envisages. One field in particular comes to mind: astrology. Let’s face it, the term “futurologist” has a whiff of the astrologist about it. Connotations of crystal balls and fortune telling render the term obscure for many people. Perhaps this impression of pseudo-science comes from blending the common term “future” with the formal term “ologist”.
Futurists gain momentum in the present
For some futures thinkers, “futurist” has similar flaws to “futurologist”. Maree Conway writes, “Futurist is an accepted title and many of my colleagues use it, but for me it brings with it connotations of certainty and predictability that are unhelpful.” Futurist Ross Dawson agrees with Conway that the future isn’t certain or predictable. Nonetheless, he states in a blog post, “I am completely comfortable with the term futurist, even if some perceive it as lacking credibility.” Both Dawson and Conway appreciate that “futurist” is less esoteric and academic than many equivalent terms. Plus it is easier to say and has overtaken “futurologist” in the popularity stakes.
However, some people dislike the label “futurist” because it evokes the Italian Futurists, radical artists of the Futurism movement in the early twentieth century. Futures thinker and author Andres Agostini wrote a complaint entitled “Why The Universal Usage Of The Terms ‘…Futurism…’ And ‘…Futurist…’ Is Unimpeachably Wrong As Per Three World-Class Dictionaries!” Nonetheless, the rising popularity of the term “futurist” has since prompted Agostini to style himself as a futurist. Yet the ongoing surfeit of words to describe futures thinkers implies that calling oneself a futurist still has its shortcomings.
Foresight and its practitioners, researchers and consultants
The question remains: can using an alternative name to “futurist” or “futurologist” provide a helpful distinction? Maree Conway believes that yes, to some extent, it can. “I call myself a strategic foresight practitioner and researcher rather than a futurist,” Conway writes. “This may seem like semantics, but for me it’s an important point.” Conway wants to distinguish herself from multi-disciplinary futurists who, like Ross Dawson, “are asked to talk about the future of x or y or z and they can put together an amazing presentation to do just that”. While she respects the work of these futurists, her chosen role is “more a guide than a facilitator, more a mentor than a speaker and more a critical friend than an expert with the answers”.
For one-on-one or small group contexts, the term “foresight practitioner” or “foresight consultant” may well be appropriate. But for large-scale international audiences, the broader term “futurist” seems more fitting. Within foresight agencies, adding “researcher”, “manager” or another such term to “foresight” can help to customize and clarify a person’s specific role. Nonetheless, it might be ironic for futures thinkers to cling onto rigid job titles if such titles continue to decline in the future.
Opting instead for a generalized name like “foresighter” or “foresighteer” is not without its setbacks. Most foresight-related names suggest “foreseeing something that is not too far and can be actually pinned down”, complains Ziauddin Sardar. For those like Sardar who stress the uncertainty of the future, it is worrying that foresighteers can create the “illusion” of providing a “product” that “comes wrapped with wisdom”. This perception stems from the fact that foresight lacks a plural in English, resulting in name derivatives with a singular focus. In contrast, names relating to “future” or “futures” can evoke open possibilities.
Zooming in versus zooming out
Having a specific focus can prove a double-edged sword for labels from “global trends consultant” to “future strategist” or “scenario planner”. Although these names are more precise than “futurist”, they can be restrictive. For example, the uptake of “scenario planners” is blinding many organizations to other methods of exploring the future. But do abstract alternatives—like “visionary” and “luminary”—take a pluralist vision too far?
A luminary is a broad term for someone who inspires or influences others, often outside a futures context. A visionary, however, can have a deceptively narrow definition. French consulting service proGective clarifies that “Unlike the futurist, the visionary has a strong bias—political or otherwise. He/she believes in a given vision of the future, seeks to convince the decision-makers of that vision, and empowers them to make informed decisions with that vision in mind.” This starkly contradicts the “alternative futures” approach of numerous futurist thinkers, including many “horizon scanners” who aim to resist hype and maintain objectivity.
Value in validity and variety
If the futures industry investigated its internal future of naming, it could clear up some widespread misperceptions and avoid an identity crisis. A futurist facing the public should not have to suffer the dilemma of Romeo that “My name…is hateful to myself, because it is an enemy to thee…” Nonetheless, diversity in approach can strengthen the futures field, especially when insights from different types of futurist thinkers are connected. As Dawson reminds us, “However you describe the role, there is clearly value in helping people to think usefully about the future.”
Image sources: David Kernohan, Boston Public Library, Sibe Kokke and Times Up Linz
Understanding organizational change: Exceptional visualizations of evolving org charts
By Ross DawsonOrg charts have long been used to show people the formal reporting lines in organizations, usually as a hierarchy with different levels.
However organizations are regularly re-organized, requiring a new org chart to be created. In fact, organizations are completely dynamic, changing in ways small and large every single day.
A fantastic video (below) depicts the continuous and frequently dramatic changes in the org chart of Autodesk over a 4 year period, in what the creators describe as an OrgOrgChart (Organic Organizational Chart). It’s well worth watching.
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The future of law firms: new structures, virtualization, fluid talent, social media-driven reputation
By Ross DawsonA little while ago an article The future for law firms: virtual law firms, legal outsourcing and the battle for talent appeared in Thomson Legal reporting on some of my thoughts on where the legal industry is headed.
The article opens:
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How to create an extraordinarily successful future for the news industry
By Ross DawsonI recently did the opening keynote on Creating the Future of News at the International News & Media Association World Congress in New York, which brought together over 400 senior news executives from 45 countries.
Below is a video excerpt of the opening minutes of my keynote.
You can see a video of the complete keynote here, and the static presentation slides here (though much of my visual presentation was video).
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The potential of open source 3D printed housing and community
By Ross DawsonThis morning I was interviewed on the Mornings program about open source 3D printed houses.
You can view a video of the segment by clicking on the image below.
We primarily discussed the fantastic Wikihouse project, which provides Creative Commons plans for parts which can be 3D printed or machine cut and readily assembled to build inexpensive homes.
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Jobs of the future: sports referees out, emotional designers in
By Ross DawsonThis morning I was interviewed on the national breakfast program Sunrise on the future of jobs, discussing a report that suggested 40% of jobs could be replaced by automation in the next 10-15 years.
Click on the image to see a video of the segment:
In the segment I pointed to some of the broader trends shaping the future of work, as well as particular jobs that would be disappearing or growing.
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40-50% of jobs are at risk of being lost to automation, but where will they disappear fastest?
By Ross DawsonThe Committee for Economic Development for Australia (CEDA) today launched a landmark publication Australia’s Future Workforce?
It’s an excellent report, bringing together contributions from leading researchers from Australia and globally, looking at the exceptional challenges of the changing landscape of work, and some of the policy prescriptions that will help nations and their citizens to prosper.
One of the highlights of the report was an analysis of the likelihood of automation replacing jobs in Australia, adapting the methodology used by the Oxford Martin Institute in examining the risk of job losses in the US.
The Australian study looked at the likelihood of different job sectors being replaced by automation.
Source: CEDA
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Tech dangers: Will smart clothes make us obsessive about weight?
By Ross DawsonYesterday I was interviewed on the Channel 9 Mornings show about Google and Levi’s announcement that they are working on smart jeans that will provide a touch interface to digital devices and could include sensors to monitor weight gains and health.
Click on the image to view a video of the segment.
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The real role of education is to teach us to play
By Ross DawsonEarlier this year I gave the opening keynote at the annual thought leadership forum of Chartered Accountants Australia and New Zealand, with the conference this year titled “Future Proofing the Profession: Preparing Business Leaders and Finance Professionals for 2025”.
An interesting article titled The uncertain future of work reviewed some of the ideas presented by speakers at the event. On my session it reports:
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What people value in creating better lives: differences around the world
By Ross DawsonThe OECD has created a wonderful interactive visual map of the world, showing the Better Life Index – what people value most in their lives – in different countries around the world.
Source: OECD
It is fascinating to see what people value the most around the world. When we look at cultural differences between countries, the simple question of what people value show deep differences, and strong insights into national identity.
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Futurist, futurologist, foresight practitioner, visionary, foresighteer: what’s in a name?
By Vanessa Cartwright“By a name I know not how to tell thee who I am,” laments Romeo to Juliette in one of Shakespeare’s most memorable scenes. A similar complaint about the inadequacy of names is often uttered by today’s “futurists”. Be they futurologists, foresight consultants or futurist thinkers by any other name, of what import is their choice of one term over another?
Formerly fashionable futurologists
Futurologists were all the rage back in the 1960s, ‘70s and ‘80s. In History and Futurology (1966), German professor Ossip Flechtheim saw futurologists as the future-thinking counterparts of historical sociologists. Little did he know that the role of a futurologist would soon burst the boundaries of sociology and become multi-disciplinary in scope.
Given that most “ologies” are specific, testable branches of knowledge, some futures thinkers dislike the name “futurologist”. In an article for Futures journal, futurist Ziaudinn Sardar writes, “The pretension that exploration of the future is, or can be, an exact field of inquiry is both naïve and dangerous.” He points out that people who study alternative futures may be more accurately termed mellontologists, from the Greek word for time, mellon. Unfortunately, the association of mellon with big, juicy fruits means that potential mellontologists might not be taken seriously.
However, not all “ologies” are the precise fields of inquiry that Sardar envisages. One field in particular comes to mind: astrology. Let’s face it, the term “futurologist” has a whiff of the astrologist about it. Connotations of crystal balls and fortune telling render the term obscure for many people. Perhaps this impression of pseudo-science comes from blending the common term “future” with the formal term “ologist”.
Futurists gain momentum in the present
For some futures thinkers, “futurist” has similar flaws to “futurologist”. Maree Conway writes, “Futurist is an accepted title and many of my colleagues use it, but for me it brings with it connotations of certainty and predictability that are unhelpful.” Futurist Ross Dawson agrees with Conway that the future isn’t certain or predictable. Nonetheless, he states in a blog post, “I am completely comfortable with the term futurist, even if some perceive it as lacking credibility.” Both Dawson and Conway appreciate that “futurist” is less esoteric and academic than many equivalent terms. Plus it is easier to say and has overtaken “futurologist” in the popularity stakes.
However, some people dislike the label “futurist” because it evokes the Italian Futurists, radical artists of the Futurism movement in the early twentieth century. Futures thinker and author Andres Agostini wrote a complaint entitled “Why The Universal Usage Of The Terms ‘…Futurism…’ And ‘…Futurist…’ Is Unimpeachably Wrong As Per Three World-Class Dictionaries!” Nonetheless, the rising popularity of the term “futurist” has since prompted Agostini to style himself as a futurist. Yet the ongoing surfeit of words to describe futures thinkers implies that calling oneself a futurist still has its shortcomings.
Foresight and its practitioners, researchers and consultants
The question remains: can using an alternative name to “futurist” or “futurologist” provide a helpful distinction? Maree Conway believes that yes, to some extent, it can. “I call myself a strategic foresight practitioner and researcher rather than a futurist,” Conway writes. “This may seem like semantics, but for me it’s an important point.” Conway wants to distinguish herself from multi-disciplinary futurists who, like Ross Dawson, “are asked to talk about the future of x or y or z and they can put together an amazing presentation to do just that”. While she respects the work of these futurists, her chosen role is “more a guide than a facilitator, more a mentor than a speaker and more a critical friend than an expert with the answers”.
For one-on-one or small group contexts, the term “foresight practitioner” or “foresight consultant” may well be appropriate. But for large-scale international audiences, the broader term “futurist” seems more fitting. Within foresight agencies, adding “researcher”, “manager” or another such term to “foresight” can help to customize and clarify a person’s specific role. Nonetheless, it might be ironic for futures thinkers to cling onto rigid job titles if such titles continue to decline in the future.
Opting instead for a generalized name like “foresighter” or “foresighteer” is not without its setbacks. Most foresight-related names suggest “foreseeing something that is not too far and can be actually pinned down”, complains Ziauddin Sardar. For those like Sardar who stress the uncertainty of the future, it is worrying that foresighteers can create the “illusion” of providing a “product” that “comes wrapped with wisdom”. This perception stems from the fact that foresight lacks a plural in English, resulting in name derivatives with a singular focus. In contrast, names relating to “future” or “futures” can evoke open possibilities.
Zooming in versus zooming out
Having a specific focus can prove a double-edged sword for labels from “global trends consultant” to “future strategist” or “scenario planner”. Although these names are more precise than “futurist”, they can be restrictive. For example, the uptake of “scenario planners” is blinding many organizations to other methods of exploring the future. But do abstract alternatives—like “visionary” and “luminary”—take a pluralist vision too far?
A luminary is a broad term for someone who inspires or influences others, often outside a futures context. A visionary, however, can have a deceptively narrow definition. French consulting service proGective clarifies that “Unlike the futurist, the visionary has a strong bias—political or otherwise. He/she believes in a given vision of the future, seeks to convince the decision-makers of that vision, and empowers them to make informed decisions with that vision in mind.” This starkly contradicts the “alternative futures” approach of numerous futurist thinkers, including many “horizon scanners” who aim to resist hype and maintain objectivity.
Value in validity and variety
If the futures industry investigated its internal future of naming, it could clear up some widespread misperceptions and avoid an identity crisis. A futurist facing the public should not have to suffer the dilemma of Romeo that “My name…is hateful to myself, because it is an enemy to thee…” Nonetheless, diversity in approach can strengthen the futures field, especially when insights from different types of futurist thinkers are connected. As Dawson reminds us, “However you describe the role, there is clearly value in helping people to think usefully about the future.”
Image sources: David Kernohan, Boston Public Library, Sibe Kokke and Times Up Linz