The future of work: better decisions supported by computers and professionals

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This morning I gave the opening keynote on The Future of Work at the Chartered Accountants Thought Leadership Forum on Future Proofing the Profession: Preparing Business Leaders and Finance Professionals for 2025, the third year in a row I’ve given keynotes on different topics at the Thought Leadership Forum.

In my keynote I went into depth on the forces shaping the future of work and the action that we can take today to help create a better future. One of the topics I raised was about the future of decision-making in a world of increasing automation.

Andrew McAfee of MIT has created a simple illustration of the path to better decisions.

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Source: Andrew McAfee
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Insights into what sustainability really means

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Futurist Ross Dawson recently spoke about Building Financial Sustainability at the Vicwater Financial Sustainability Conference.

Ross opened his speech by telling us what we have long suspected. The word “sustainability” has been so overused, misused and abused that it has substantially lost its meaning. He wants us to reclaim this lost meaning of sustainability and to remind us that questions about what is “sustainable” REALLY mean, “Can we keep doing this indefinitely into the future without everything falling apart?”

Ross reminds us that even the very concept of “indefinite sustainability” is very difficult because we don’t live in a steady state world. Reality is constantly shifting under our feet and this sort of dynamism is going to keep us constantly on our toes, so for a system or an organization or even a way of being to be sustainable, it’s going to have to change constantly with an ever-changing reality.

It’s more realistic and practical to talk about paths to sustainability, that sustainability isn’t a destination so much as a road.

The contexts in which we’re going to have to look for paths to sustainability include:

  • Business and Finance: where the dominant emerging trend is that between high-performing organizations – which can seize change and can continue increasingly add value – contrast with low-performing organizations that resist change and subsequently create less value or increasingly destroy value over time.
  • Climate and the Environment: in which, spite of divergent opinions, a consensus is forming that mean global temperatures are rising and that human activity is a major contributing cause. How will we manage sustainability in a world of rising sea levels and interruptions on the water cycle and their impacts on human habitation? What should be done? What can we do?
  • The Social Sphere: In a world of increasing population and urbanization, how will we manage an ever-increasing influx into urban fringes with their inevitable disruption to communities? How will we find work and meaningful contribution for all these people? If the increase of urban riots is a symptom of underlying frustration, inter-cultural tension, divergence and fragmentation how will we manage that? How will we maintain our communities? Some societies seem to be better at coping with change than others. What can we learn from them?

Whatever answers we come up with, we have to face the fact that we’re living in a world of increasing friction between people and the environment and competing needs. Our challenge is about how clever and creative we can be of managing to keep everything together without things falling apart. The higher the Humpty-Dumpty of our civilization sits, the further he can fall.

All these frictions and instabilities will inevitability influence financial and economic sustainability. If we fail to design sustainable solutions in a context of escalating and accelerating change, change will be thrust upon us anyway, and we might not like what we get.

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Launch of keynote speaker influence ranking tracker

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We have just launched a keynote speaker influence ranking page, giving an indication of the social and online reach of people who work primarily as keynote speakers. The widget is embedded below (and you can embed it in your own website if you want), though it is better viewed on the main rankings page.

There are and have been many influence ranking systems around. This one focuses on a particular group – keynote speakers – for whom online influence is particularly important, and brings together three measures: Klout, website traffic, and Twitter followers.

It is of course very easy to criticise any influence rankings mechanism, and we do not pretend this is by any means ‘accurate’, it is intended to be indicative and interesting. We have provided complete transparency by publishing the algorithm we use. The intention is to tweak and develop the algorithm over time. Let us know if you have suggestions on how to improve it!
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Will Local Service Marketplaces Soar Despite the Challenges?

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Local service marketplaces have flourished in recent years, but the evolution of some of the key players show there are significant challenges.

One of the most fascinating developments we have observed in the Crowdsourcing Landscape over the past two years is the explosion in local service marketplaces. These sites allow individuals to outsource small personal tasks and errands to local providers. From house cleaning to fetching the groceries to somebody coming to assemble your flat pack furniture, it’s now easy for buyers to connect to sellers who will do those jobs they don’t have time to do or those chores they hate.

The best known local service marketplace is TaskRabbit which has received nearly $38m in funding and expanded outside the US. Meanwhile other platforms have flourished usually serving particular cities or countries, for example Ask for Task in Canada and Airtasker in Australia. The latter is now looking to break into the US and providing a service targeted to businesses.

Despite what look like some real success stories, local service marketplaces have real challenges, as evidenced by the evolution of the business models of some of the major players.

A fragmented market

One of the main issues is that the sector is highly fragmented, both in terms of geography covered and type of service offered.  It can be difficult for a local service marketplace to expand beyond the metropolitan area it usually serves and few sites genuinely compete at even a country-level.  New entrants may also find considerable competition for particular cities or around particular services.
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The rise of crowdsourcing in Malaysia

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I was recently in Kuala Lumpur to do twin keynotes at the National Crowdsourcing Conference organized by Digital Malaysia, and meet with government officials to discuss how Malaysia can best tap the potential of crowdsourcing.

The Star of Malaysia, the largest English-language newspaper in the country, interviewed me while I was there for a feature section on crowdsourcing. Here are excerpts from some of the articles:

The main article Captivate the crowd looks at the big picture of crowdsourcing and its potential:

Collaborating with others through crowdsourcing can put previously unachievable goals within reach.

In fact, as an individual, you too can stand to benefit from the use of crowdsourcing ­platforms. No matter what your ambitions may be, they could very likely become a ­reality if you can successfully capture the interest of the crowd.

“You can start to look for further work opportunities where you can get paid for things you’re good at,” says Ross Dawson, chairman of ­network ­economy experts, Advanced Human Technologies.

“You could also see if there are ways to contribute to something out there. Try it and see what works.”

Alternatively, you could even look for ­others to help you accomplish a dream project such as creating a short film or ­performing a charitable deed.

Although unpaid contributions tend to get better crowd responses, a paid crowdsourced project can still do as well if the ­crowdsourcing platform used has been well designed.

“It’s about how you design it to get people to want to contribute. People should enjoy the process, then it’d be easier to get them involved,” says Dawson.

“There should be a sense of community, and people’s schedules should be respected. You should give as much flexibility as ­possible because that’s valuable to people.”

Crowdsourcing: Opening up to possibilities gives an overview of crowdsourcing in Malaysia.

Crowdsourcing brings about a whole new range of opportunities that Malaysian organisations can benefit from, but few have actually taken advantage of this potential.

Ross Dawson, chairman of Advanced Human Technologies says it will take around four to five years before Malaysia will be able to fully leverage on the power of crowdsourcing.

“Realistically, it will take that long to develop a world class (crowdsourcing) platform here,” he says. “Companies (here) need to be aware that there may be many different ways to use crowdsourcing. This is very important for Malaysian organisations if they want to be competitive and growing in a globalised economy. We’ll increasingly see a gap between those organisations who take advantage of such opportunities and those that don’t.”

However, Dawson feels that the nation is off to a good start so far and believes that great possibilities lie ahead for Malaysia due to its knowledge based economy and the abilities of its workforce.

“I would say that Malaysia is on par with other countries in this region. One of the advantages that Malaysia has is that the English language is pretty widely spoken here,” he adds.

A third article summarizes How to best carry out crowdsourcing, drawing on interviews with both Ross and Carl Esposti, CEO of Massolution, who also spoke at the event, as well as from Chapter 4 of my book Getting Results From Crowds on how to use crowds. (Available as a free download from the book website).

I have some more engagements coming up soon working with the directors of major Malaysian organizations. Malaysia is one of the most dynamic countries in South-East Asia, and the initiatives in crowdsourcing undertaken by the government provide ample evidence of their forward-looking mentality.

Can Facebook-informed algorithms know you better than your mother?

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This morning I was interviewed on the national breakfast program Sunrise about whether algorithms can assess our personality better than those who are closest to us.

Click on the image below to view the segment.

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The segment described some just-released research titled Computer-based personality judgments are more accurate than those made by humans in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, which says:

This study compares the accuracy of personality judgment—a ubiquitous and important social-cognitive activity—between computer models and humans. Using several criteria, we show that computers’ judgments of people’s personalities based on their digital footprints are more accurate and valid than judgments made by their close others or acquaintances (friends, family, spouse, colleagues, etc.). Our findings highlight that people’s personalities can be predicted automatically and without involving human social-cognitive skills.

The personality-assessment algorithm was solely based on Facebook likes made by participants, with results compared to the assessments of people who know them well. As little as 150 likes was sufficient to provide a more accurate personality assessment than a family member such as a parent, while 300 likes enabled a better assessment than a spouse.

What was perhaps more interesting was the claim that “computer personality judgments have higher external validity when predicting life outcomes such as substance use, political attitudes, and physical health; for some outcomes, they even outperform the self-rated personality scores.”

The potential implications are profound. Article co-author Wu Youyou said “In this context, the human-computer interactions depicted in science fiction films such as ‘Her’ seem to be within our reach.”

Being able to interact with people in a way tailored to their personalities and designed to generate particular responses is certainly a fair way beyond being able to assess personalities accurately, but we are rapidly heading in that direction.

These findings are unlikely to give pause to people sharing their lives – and personalities – on social media, but we absolutely need to be aware quite how deep the insights about ourselves we are sharing in our everyday online behaviors.

Today show on Back to the Future: celebrating the exceptional ‘future’ that is 2015

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This morning I was interviewed on both of Australia’s national breakfast TV programs, Today and Sunrise, to greet 2015. Many of the media outlets interviewing me at this turn-of-the-year have wanted to know how well the film Back to the Future II, which in 1989 depicted the world in 2015, anticipated today’s world.

Click on the image below to watch the interview on the Today show.
Today010115

Some of the ideas we covered in the segment:
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7 defining themes for 2015 (with videos)

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At the end of every year since 2006 I have created structured thoughts about the year to come. The last months of 2014 have been so crazy that I have, unfortunately, not had the time to create highly designed content on the year ahead.

However in preparing for some TV interviews at the turn of the year I have pulled together 7 themes that will help define 2015. Here they are, together with illustrative videos.

1. Robots are here


Robots have so long being part of science fiction that many have come to believe they will never arrive. With recent technological advances, the age of robots is finally beginning, with humanoid robots finally entering the mainstream in work, retail, aged care, the home and even warfare.
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Envisioning the future of government as solution enabler

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When you look at the future, there are few more important topics than the future of government.

Government was designed to be institutional, providing stability to nations. Yet that design and structure means that governmental institutions are generally very poorly prepared to change as required in the face of extraordinary shifts in society and business.

I have been drawn more into the future of government over the last few years, among other activities creating and sharing my Transformation of Government framework with a variety of groups of senior policymakers.

William Eggers and his team at Deloitte have distilled some excellent analysis and insights into the future of government at their Government 2020 site, which includes an overview of drivers and trends shaping government, and views on the implications across domains of government.

The following slides and video provide nice high-level overviews of the work.

The other resources on the website are well worth a look, including the Drivers and Trends sections.


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Timeline of Emerging Science and Technology: A visual framework

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My colleague and friend Richard Watson and I have created a number of visual frameworks together, including Trend Blend 2007+ based on the London tube map, which has spawned many imitators over the years.

Since Richard has moved back to London we’ve collaborated less on frameworks, however Richard has continued to do some marvellous work.

Here is the Timeline of Emerging Science and Technology, created by Richard’s What’s Next in collaboration with Imperial College Tech Foresight.

Timeline_Emerging_Science
Click on the image to view the full-size pdf.
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