The future IS gaming

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I recently finished reading the techno-thriller Daemon by Daniel Suarez. It is certainly not literature, but it is a fast-paced thriller that I found hard to put down. It posits a world in which a genius who creates online games builds a systems that makes the entire world into what is effectively a game, with an augmented reality interface, and in which individuals earn points for tasks that give them higher ranking.

I have long thought it is inevitable that much of our work and play will take place in what are effectively game environments.

In Jesse Schell‘s presentation at DICE (hattip: Kevin Kelly/The Technium) he gives an array of fantastic ideas about the intersection of reality and gaming. After covering how many games such as Wii, Guitar Hero and Webkinz are bring the real world into games, he goes off (from around 18:00) on a rapid-fire string of suggestions about how every aspect of the world can be made into a game.

It is intriguing that mobile social networking, which I have written about since its early days in 2002, has only taken off when Foursquare made it into a game. As people become more familiar with gaming environments and concepts, it seems natural to bring in gaming aspects to more parts of our life. Dangerous things that way lie, but it is inevitable that games and what we think of as reality will be merged to an extraordinary degree.

[UPDATE:] Tom Foremski says why he thinks this is a scary future.

Australia is becoming a global hub for crowdsourcing platforms: Freelancer.com, 99designs, DesignCrowd

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Crowdsourcing in the broadest sense will be one of the fundamental platforms of the emerging network economy. As such it’s pleasing to see that Australia is becoming a hub for a number of the most significant crowdsourcing platforms globally.

I caught up with Alec Lynch of DesignCrowd yesterday for an interesting conversation about the crowdsourcing space and thought it was worth giving a quick pointer to the three main platforms run out of Australia (though all are global in scope).

freelancer.jpgFreelancer.com, was founded in Sweden as getafreelancer.com in 2004. I first wrote about it in 2005 in an overview of the space. For many years it was the dominant online services exchange in Europe, and one of the top three globally. In May 2009 it was bought by Australian company Ignition Networks, which also acquired the domain Freelancer.com. The company is run by veteran tech entrepreneur Matt Barrie, who most recently founded and ran specialty processor firm Sensory Networks Inc.

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The promise of distributed power: the Bloom Box and more

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At Future Exploration Network, one of our roles is to help clients understand the technologies that have the potential to dramatically disrupt existing industries and structures.

Distributed technologies which bring power and manufacturing to the local level, or even the home, definitely fall into that category. Modern economies are largely based on centralized power generation on an enormous scale, combined with power distribution networks taking that to the home.

For decades people have looked at the possibilities of fuel cells which allow homes or neighborhoods to generate their own power. Fuel cell manufacturer Bloom Energy , despite being largely in stealth mode, was named in the World Economic Forum’s Technology Pioneers 2010 list. Last night CBS News ran a 13 minute segment (embedded below) devoted to Bloom Energy, suggesting it has the potential to transform how we use energy.

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The battlefield for mobile platforms and mobile applications becomes clear: fragmentation, innovation, and dead-ends

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I was just interviewed on Sky Business this morning about the news coming out from Mobile World Congress in Barcelona.

In the plethora of announcements, what stands out for me is the increasing clarity of the emerging platforms battle, which is happening on two levels: mobile operating system and applications.

Mobile operating system

The launch of the iPhone 3G redefined how people thought about mobile devices. Now we are finally getting a range of serious and comparable alternatives.

The most visible of these is of course Android. Eric Schmidt said yesterday that there now 60,000 Android phones sold every day, and there appear to be new mobile models launched almost daily.

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Predictions for enterprise social software and social network analysis

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Gartner has released five interesting predictions for social software. Here are the predictions along with a few of my thoughts.

By 2014, social networking services will replace e-mail as the primary vehicle for interpersonal communications for 20 percent of business users.

This is a transition that we’ve seen for a very long time, and looks finally ready to come to fruition. Coming from a financial markets background, I’d seen from as far back as the late 1990s that email as a primary medium was resulting in communication breakdown. I’ve long believed that shifting communication out of email was one of the main ways that social media would be valuable, as for example expressed in my 2005 white paper How Collaborative Technologies are Transforming Financial Services.

This prediction will play out very differently across organizations. Many companies will remain bound in email. Others, particularly those that are project-centric and effectively implement social software, could well see a substantially more than 20% of communication shift out of email. The development and evolution of new tools such as Google Wave will see email not quite die, but rapidly erode in the most innovative organizations.

By 2012, over 50 percent of enterprises will use activity streams that include microblogging, but stand-alone enterprise microblogging will have less than 5 percent penetration.

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Tapping the power of crowdsourcing for good

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I am not that keen on the word “crowdsourcing”, because people mean many different things when they use the term. However since it is the word most used to describe tapping the power of distributed talent, which is one of the most important emerging themes in our hyper-connected world, I will embrace it, and hopefully soon draw up my own taxonomy of what crowdsourcing means to help clarify the conversation.

I was struck by a post by Steve Kelman on The dark side of crowdsourcing?. Kelman attended a presentation by Jonathan Zittrain (esteemed scholar and author of The Future of the Internet – and How to Stop It) in which Zittrain pointed to how crowdsourcing approaches could used for bad things. However Kelman came out primarily impressed with the vast potential of the field.

One of the best-known domains for crowdsourcing is getting contributions for inventors and innovators to contribute, using innovation markets such as Innocentive (which I described in Chapter 5 of Living Network on Innovation), and prizes such as the X-Prize Foundation.

An emerging domain is using large pools of people to monitor for crime:

Zittran then noted the growth of applications (this one from the U.K.) where people, for very small amounts of money, are apparently willing, from the comfort of their couches, to monitor crime surveillance cameras to look for suspicious activity and report it. Some companies are also getting people, again for micro-payments, to report in if they recognize photos of people participating in a mass marijuana smoke-in.

The downsides of these kinds of applications were then raised:

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Who is most influential in Enterprise 2.0?

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Over the holidays Mark Fidelman launched his 2010 Enterprise 2.0 All-Star Blogger Roster. Mark says:

Now that the holiday hangover has worn off and the bills are coming due, I want to turn your attention to the individuals that are most influencing the Enterprise 2.0 space. Those of you that are early adopters or just starting to research Enterprise 2.0 can short cut the search for quality information by following and reading from these all-stars.

The list of 22 people includes Andrew McAfee, who coined the term Enterprise 2.0 and has recently launched his book by the same name, sits at the top of the tree, with five termed “Most Influential” (where Mark has kindly placed me, presumably partly due to the success of my book Implementing Enterprise 2.0), five “Highly Influential”, ten “Influential”, with as a special extra Dennis Howlett, who believes that Enterprise 2.0 is ‘a crock’, as “Enterprise 2.0 Referee”.

Click on the image to see Mark’s post including a larger version of the image and the data used to assess the influence of the all-stars.

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Creating Knowledge-based CRM initiatives

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I am running a two-day executive program on Relationship Management for Financial Services in Kuala Lumpur on 28-29 January, organized by IBN International. The workshop will be attended by executives from a variety of local and global financial institutions in South-East Asia.

Over the last few years I have spent less time on these issues as I’ve broadened my scope to look at the future of business, however much of my earlier career was in financial services, working at Merrill Lynch and Thomson Financial, and my focus was for a number of years on high-value client relationships, best expressed in my book Developing Knowledge-Based Client Relationships. As such , in the late 1990s and the first years of the following decade I did considerable work with major financial institutions on enhancing their client relationship capabilities.

Increasingly, the key client programs applied in corporate and insitutional banking and the CRM initiatives implemented in retail and private banking are coming together. The shift to online and data-driven relationships has facilitated that shift.

To help explain some of the key drivers of CRM programs from a “knowledge-based” perspective, I have created a Knowledge-Based CRM Framework which I will use in the executive program in KL. This will complement my existing content and frameworks on high-value relationships, which are summarized in Chapter 6 of Developing Knowledge-Based Client Relationships. Hopefully the framework below is largely self-explanatory, however I will try to find the time at a later stage to explain the framework in more detail.

KnowledgeBasedCRMFramework.jpg

Click on the image to download Knowledge-based CRM Framework

Trend map for 2010 and out to 2050

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For the last few years Richard Watson of NowandNext has created annual trend maps based on city subway maps. This year he has been more ambitious, creating a highly detailed map with five time zones, ranging from 2010-2015 out to 2035-2050.

For the previous three trend maps (shown at the bottom) I collaborated with Richard and we co-branded them with Future Exploration Network, however time pressures this year meant that I haven’t directly contributed to the 2010 map. It is still as rich and glorious as ever – spend some time delving into the trends ahead!

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MEGATRENDS OF THE TREND MAP

– Ageing

– Power shift Eastwards

– Globalisation

– Localisation

– Digitalisation

– Personalisation

– Volatility

– Individualism

– Environmental change

– Sustainability

– Debt

– Urbanisation

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The top 10 trends for the 2010s: the most exciting decade in human history

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In his excellent book The Meaning of the 21st Century, James Martin asks when in human history you would most like to be alive.

For me there is no question that it is now. The coming decade will be the most exciting in human history. The very challenging year of 2009 that we are preparing to bid farewell to helped to tear up the fairly linear progress of the first decade of the century. Now, technological and social change are poised to accelerate far beyond what we have become accustomed to.

A critical uncertainty is how well we will respond to this extraordinary pace of change, both as individuals and as societies. Will we be able to adapt and change, or will severe dysfunctions emerge? Just one dimension is the manifold ethical dilemmas that are raised by gaining extraordinary technological capabilities.

Here are the ten trends that I believe will be most fundamental to the decade ahead. I hope to present these and associated trends in an interactive visual format before long. For now, here are the 10 trends for 2010.

1. Information Intensity

We will soon consume more media than there are waking hours, by virtue of multi-channeling at most times. Billions of people and places will be media producers, including video streaming from most points of view on the world. We are just at the dawn of an incomprehensible daily onslaught of news and information – some valuable, much useless.

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