Media Trends + Strategy: The State of Play

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Media Trends+Strategy magazine (click on the link to access the magazine in interactive format) includes a piece titled Media: The State of Play – Expert Analysis which features edited interviews with a variety of participants in the media space, including John Sintras, CEO of Starcom, Belinda Rowe, CEO of ZenithOptimedia, Collin Segelov, Executive Director of the Australian Association of National Advertisers, and myself.

My interview is below. You can also read it and the other interviews by going to the magazine from the link above – my interview is on page 30.

Further context on some of my comments is available from the Seven Driving Forces of Media and Creating the Future of Advertising.

What does the ongoing consolidation In the industry mean for marketers?

The first thing to understand is that the most powerful broad trend in media is fragmentation and while mass media remains, it is becoming a smaller and smaller proportion of the overall media landscape. So within that context, what we see is that there is consolidation within particular segments and in some of the larger players. We have seen more and more cross media ownership as regulation has eased. One of the implications for marketers is that they are increasingly being offered media packages across different segments from the same owner. This is obviously not a new trend, but as we get more and more cross media ownership, more and more marketers are being presented with these offers to access an audience through a multiplicity of different channels. From a marketers or media buyer perspective , these can only be judged on their individual merits. It really needs to be driven by the media buyer as to what is the appropriate set of media channels to reach their audience with the right message, and that may or may not tally with what is being offered by some of the larger media owners.

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Global media strategies: review of Future of Media Summit panel

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I’ve been trying to get the time to do reviews of the key panels at the Future of Media Summit, but it’s been tough to get. Here I will kick off with a quick review of the Global Media Strategies panel. The fantastic cast of speakers that I moderated was:

Loic Le Meur, CEO, Seesmic

Chris Tolles, CEO, Topix

Willie Pang, Head of Yahoo! Search Marketing Australia/ New Zealand

Craig Blair, Executive Director, netus

Global media strategies is the one topic that is covered every single year at the Future of Media Summit. One of the main reasons we run an event across two locations simultaneously – in the Bay Area and Sydney – is to gain insights into the differences between media markets. On each side of the event, by comparing experiences across variations in market size, media ownership structure, regulation, culture, broadband and mobile data access etc., we can think usefully about what it takes to build and implement global media strategies.

In the very popular Future of Media Report 2008 that accompanied our event, we included insights such as the expected growth in advertising revenue 2007 – 2010 in both dollar and percentage terms, illustrated below. While the largest absolute growth will be in the US, emerging nations are where the bulk of new value will come from.

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Here are just a few of the insights from the panel discussion that remain from my notes and scattered brain cells.

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How will news and social networks be integrated?

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It is inevitable that news dissemination will become a largely social function. By whatever means, we will be provided with extremely low touch ways of sharing content we think would be interesting to specific people we know. This will then be filtered in various ways by the recipients, however most will value being recommended articles and sites on an individual basis.

Digg, StumbleUpon, del.icio.us, and other tools allow us to recommend content to the world at large. But recommendations are far more valuable if they are specific to the person and context. The best way to disseminate these recommendations is through our social networks, if we happen to spend time there. So social networks can become a platform for the collaborative filtering of content, giving individuals the benefit of their network’s judgment and access to information.

In this context, the announcement today by New York Times and LinkedIn of a way of providing custom content and recommendations to their network is a landmark. Over the next few years this integration of social networks and content will rapidly evolve to be a very important part of the landscape.

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Fantastic insights from the blog coverage of the Future of Media Summit

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Sorry I’ve been slow to follow up on the Future of Media Summit – it’s been a very busy time since the event, including some long flights :-)

To start off here are some of the most interesting blog posts on the Summit. There are some fantastic ideas and insights in these, so well worth a read. In no particular order :

Stephen Collins: What will the future of media look like?, including the ‘artificial split’ between journalism and new media

Chris Bishops: Monetising future content: business models as traditional content models break down.

JD Lasica: Takeaways from Future of Media Summit, including the ‘Great Decoupling’ and media as ‘Distraction Machine’

Phil Morle: A Future for TV: The Collaborative Crowd – the future is (crudely) present

Seth Yates: Comprehensive Future of Media Summary including notes on all the panels

Jay Cross: review of Future of Media Summit, including the US future of journalism panel

Stilgherrian: Note to “old media: journalists: adapt or stfu!

(Same post at Crikey with different comment stream)

Jonathan Este: Bloggers: the biggest whingers since journalists (Response to Stilgherrian, originally posted on Crikey and reposted on Stilgherrian’s blog with comments)

Brad Howarth: Live from Future of Media Summit Part 1, Live from Future of Media Summit Part 2, Live from Future of Media Summit Part 3 – detailed insights and commentary

Craig Wilson: review of the Future of Media Summit, including discussion of the Twitter backchannel at the event

Gavin Heaton: review of future of Media Summit: the future of media is PARTICIPATION

Alex Gibson: compilation of ideas and annotations from the event Twitter stream

Kathy Drasky: live blogging and commentary from the Future of Media Summit in Silicon Valley

Gordon Whitehead: Future of Media: Opportunity or Train Wreck – believing in opportunities

Also be sure to see the initial review of social media commentary on the Future of Media Summit. Since then, additional posts on the Future of Media Summit blog include two additional summaries of discussions on Participant Roundtables on the Sydney side:

Media and social networks Roundtable

Shifts in the advertising industry Roundtable

[UPDATE:] More great blog posts

Hugh Martin: More thoughts on the Summit and Future of Journalism panel

Trevor Cook: Future of media: how relevant is social media? (Trevor coulddn’t attend but responded to the blog conversation)

Ben Barren: Recap of hesaid-shesaid Australia’s own Sarah Lacy moment (Ben also didn’t attend but adds thoughts to the debate.

Francis Pisani (Le Monde blog):

Blogalaxie: “future des medias” et “rumeurs” – Francis’s comments on the future of journalisms blog discussion stemming from the event.

I’ll be weighing in on the future of journalism debate (including notes from the outstanding Silicon Valley panel discussion) as soon as I get a chance…

Launch of Future of Media: Strategy Tools framework

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The third key framework from Future of Media Report 2008 (after Future of the Media Lifecycle and 7 Driving Forces Shaping Media) is the Future of Media: Strategy Tools framework.

This lays out three of the most valuable tools for building strategy in the media and adjacent industries. The high-level overviews are intended to provide some useful introductions to relevant strategy tools for those engaged in the front-line of creating and implementing strategies in an extraordinarily dynamic environment.

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Flow Economy Framework

The central framework used here is the Flow Economy framework that I first described in Chapter 7 of Living Networks (free download of chapter 7 here).

The chart gives an overview of the process of using the Flow Economy framework for media strategy, illustrated by brief examples of the strategies adopted by Apple, BSkyB, and NTT DoCoMo.

Scenario Planning for Media

A high-level example of the scenario planning process is described as applied to media, together with a scenario framework that is particularly relevant in the current environment.

Game Theory: Strategies for Openness

Traditional approaches to strategy are having to change as the industry landscape moves at a rapid pace to openness. One of the most powerful tools available to address these issues is game theory.

Future of Media Summit blog: Mark Pesce on iPhone phails, Tom Abate on future of journalism, insights from other speakers and participants…

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Every event we do, we run a blog for all speakers and participants. Since Future of Media Summit 2007 we’ve maintained the Future of Media blog on an ongoing basis, including my blogging activity on the future of media.

As we approach the Future of Media Summit 2008, the Future of Media Summit blog is taking off as a forum for fantastic contributions and ideas on the future of media. Summit speakers and participants are now posting, and we can expect some fantastic conversations on the event blog up to, during, and after the Summit next week.

Some recent highlighted posts with brief excerpts:

Mark Pesce on iPhail: A fantastic, detailed post on what is wrong with Australia’s iPhone plans.

Never in my five years in Australia have I seen such a complete failure in marketing. Three Australian telcos – Optus, Telstra and Vodafone – have the device. All of them have completely failed to recognize the pent-up demand for the device, and the way it will change network usage. This was revealed – beyond all doubts – in the way they released their pricing plans, and the specifics of those plans.

…

We could name our MVNO the Future AUstralian Carrier, or FAUC.

Don’t like your plan from Telstra, or Vodafone, or Optus? Well, get FAUC.

Yes, we’d still have to deal with Apple, we’d still have to promise them 10% of the operating revenues from iPhone, if we wanted to retail it on FAUC, but we could at least be completely transparent about our costs. Customers (that is, us) would understand where every dollar spent on FAUC went. That, in itself, would likely engender tremendous loyalty from the base of users – which would bring more users in, a slow tidal wave, as people abandoned the big-name carriers for a crazy mob of Australians who decided to do it themselves.

So… who’s in?

Mark Pesce (again) on Another Planet, Utterly Unlike Our Own.

This is the risk Disney takes when it uses old-fashioned business models in a thoroughly modern world. They may squeak by this time, and perhaps the next, but one day – and for the rest of time – that tactic will fail them. They’ll lose their market window, because they misunderstood the audience.

Tom Abate on Take me to your leader. Reflections from a life in journalism on where it’s going.

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Launch of the Future of Media Report 2008! We predict the media industry will be worth US$5.7 trillion in 2024

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Our Future of Media Report 2008 is now launched! (See also our extremely popular Future of Media Report 2007 and Future of Media Report 2006).

This will be given to attendees at the Future of Media Summit 2008 next week in beautiful glossy print format to take home. If for some reason you are NOT attending the Summit, you’ll have to settle for a digital version with small print-outs of the spreads (unless you happen to have a large-format printer handy…) :-)

This year we’ve taken a slightly different approach, moving away from providing statistics, and focusing on developing three frameworks to help people think about the future of media and engage in constructive conversations at the Summit. We’ve always found we get a fantastic response to our frameworks, so we focused on this as a way to create value with the report.

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Future of Media Report 2008 (pdf 1MB)

A quick overview of the report contents:

WELCOME

An introduction to the report. The full text is at the bottom of this post.

MEDIA: A GROWTH MARKET

Contains our prediction that the global media and entertainment market will grow from US$1.7 trillion this year to US$5.7 trillion in 2024 (in 2008 dollars) – released in this report – as well as information on current growth trends in advertising.

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New Framework: Seven Driving Forces Shaping Media

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[UPDATE:] The complete Future of Media Report 2008 is now available.

We are releasing our new framework: Seven Driving Forces Shaping Media.

This is the second framework we are releasing in the lead-up to the Future of Media Summit 2008, which will be held next week simultaneously in Silicon Valley and Sydney. This and other content will be used to provide a starting point for discussion and conversation.

The first was the Future of the Media Lifecycle, which has already attracted substantial links and commentary. In the next days another framework on strategic tools will be released, as well as the complete Future of Media Report 2008, including all three frameworks and additional content.

Seven Driving Forces Shaping Media (pdf 700KB):

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Even more new speakers: Belinda Rowe – Zenith Optimedia, Stephen Hollings – News Limited, Bruce Meagher – SBS, Jane Schulze – The Australian, Willie Pang – Yahoo!, Jim Waltz – Traffic Marketplace, Brian Lott, Burson-Marsteller etc…

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Adding to my last post on the fabulous list of new confirmed speakers at Future of Media Summit 2008 …

See the full line-up of media leaders speaking at the event.

Others recently confirmed for the event include:

Belinda Rowe, CEO Australia of Zenith Optimedia, one of the top few media buying groups globally, with very detailed insights into media industry structure.

Stephen Hollings, CEO, News Digital Careers, who has probably the broadest understanding of the classifieds market in Australia.

Jane Schulze, Media Editor, The Australian. The Media & Marketing section of The Australian is the most widely read media publication in the country.

Bruce Meagher, Director Strategy at SBS, Australia’s multicultural public broadcaster, which has adopted a variety of new initiatives.

Willie Pang, Head of Yahoo! Search Marketing, previously worked on Yahoo!’s Panama project and has very international perspectives.

Jim Waltz, President, Traffic Marketplace, one of the leading advertising networks.

Brian Lott, SAP Global Client Leader, Burson-Marsteller, one of the leading PR firms globally.

Check out our Future of the Media Lifecycle framework, just released. More research and analysis posted here soon.

Hope to see you at the Summit!

New confirmed speakers: Phil Bronstein – Hearst, Mark Antonitis – KRON-TV, Robert Scoble – Fast Company TV, Tom Abate – MiniMediaGuy, Angelos Frangopoulos – SkyNews, Chris Tolles – Topix, Chris Warren – MEAA, Mark Goldman – Current TV… (mo

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Trying very hard to keep up on this blog with developments on Future of the Media Summit, which is falling into place as an amazing event.

Check out the Future of Media Summit 2008 website for full details on the latest speakers – it’s been described to me as a “stellar line-up” and that’s about right…

Just a couple of words in a few of the latest confirmed speakers:

Phil Bronstein, long-term editor of the San Francisco Chronicle and all-round media star, now editor-at-large at Hearst.

Mark Antonitis, President and GM of KRON-TV, which is one of the most interesting metropolitan TV stations in the US, with some very interesting practices.

Robert Scoble, MD Fast Company TV, formerly the lead blogger at Microsoft and at the very heart of the social media revolution.

Tom Abate, MiniMediaGuy, a blogger, journalist, and explorer of the future of journalism

Angelos Frangopoulos, CEO, Australian News Channel, which operates Sky News and also distributes content over multiple online and mobile platforms.

Chris Tolles, CEO, Topix, a Valley veteran running a leading US and international hyperlocal news site.

Chris Warren, General Secretary, Media Entertainment & Arts Alliance (Australia’s journalism and content union), who is deeply engaged in the transformation of journalism.

Mark Goldman, COO, Current TV, which is still one of the most exciting and interesting media business models since it was founded by Al Gore and Joel Hyatt in 2005.

More fantastic new confirmed speakers in my next post – see the full list of speakers.

We tested the high-definition video link between Sydney and Silicon Valley today, courtesy of our event Strategic Partner Tandberg. Looks fantastic. As last year, people will be commenting that they can’t distinguish between the local and cross-Pacific panellists.

Also be sure to see our Future of the Media Lifecycle framework, just released specifically for the Summit. More frameworks and other content out over the next few days.

It will be a great event – hope to see you there!