AI has been used in investment decision-making for decades, with algorithmic trading a major market driver. Now the greatly broadened scope of generative AI is reshaping investment decision-making.
This framework is highly simplified, designed to draw out the spectrum from purely algorithmic decisions through to human-first decisions augmented by AI, across different asset classes. A few comments below.
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The AI agent economy is taking off. Its next phase will be massively expanded by payments between agents and between agents and humans.
As AI agents grow in capabilities, individuals are delegating tasks to single agents that can perform tasks on their behalf such as research, curation, scheduling, travel planning, or email drafting.
A very interesting article in Coindesk, The Currency Cold War: Four Scenarios, explores four possible scenarios for the global currency landscape in the year 2030, based on possiblities that future of money guru David Birch proposes in his new book The Currency Cold War.
I was honoured to be interviewed for the article alongside luminaries such as Brett King and Heathervescent.
We asked a handful of futurists to share some thoughts on a few scenarios [for the future of global currencies and the internet], mostly in the name of a fun thought-experiment. The real world consequences are serious, though. “This is not just fun, it’s critically important,” says futurist Ross Dawson. “The world of money could change fundamentally in the next 10 years, and the implications could be massive. This is something we really need to be actively thinking about.”
A report just released by McKinsey, On the cusp of change: North American wealth management in 2030, offers some interesting perspectives.
The ideas presented in the report include the rise of “fit-nance” tracking of holistic advice, financial advisors focusing on life coaching, and ubiquitous user ratings of advisors.
One of the key concepts in the report is that financial advice will be substantially provided over Netflix-like subscription platforms:
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I recently gave a keynote in Dubai at The World in the Future conference, organised by the Ministry of Finance as part of the Dubai government’s Innovation Month. The event timeframe was 30 years in the future, showing an appetite for foresight very unusual from governments.
The event kickoff brought together three featured speakers – physicist and futurist Michio Kaku, trend watcher Daniel Levine, and myself – who each delivered a keynote and then joined a panel discussion.
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I recently tweeted:
Regarding Bitcoin:
When I was in financial markets I learned about the very plausible “perverse market theory” – the market acts to hurt the most people the most – draws the suckers in, then wipes them out, gives them hope, then tramples on them.Many are going to get hurt.
— Ross Dawson (@rossdawson) December 8, 2017
I was later asked for more information about perverse market theory, and after digging around I have drawn a blank. The term “perverse market” is usually used to refer to unintended or unanticipated market responses, but that is a different meaning from the one I referred to here.
Perhaps my memory fails me on the concept’s name (let me know if you can instruct me on this!), but the idea really struck me when I heard about it in my early career working in financial markets.
The idea of perverse market theory essentially anthropomorphizes the markets, attributing it intent, not dissimilarly to how Kevin Kelly describes directional behaviors in the development of technology in his book What Technology Wants.
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Australia’s largest bank Commonwealth Bank has just released a very interesting white paper Welcome to the machine-to-machine economy, anticipating machines engaging in financial transactions with other machines or parties, for example hiring and paying for their own maintenance workers. This would require them to have their own bank accounts and payment systems.
Source: Commonwealth Bank
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A group of top economists has created an Economic Policy Uncertainty Index for 17 countries, using media reporting and economic forecasts to show how much uncertainty there is economic policy.
The Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Index is currently the highest it has been since the beginning of the period analyzed starting at the end of 1996.
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Leading up to the Client and Firms of the Future: How to Compete conference in Sydney on March 11 (which I discussed in a previous blog post), my co-organiser George Beaton and I have recorded a brief video to set the scene.
In the video we begin by addressing the question: Why do professional services leaders need to think about the future? and go on to discuss what to expect at the conference.
Points we make in the video include:
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Big Data is one of the hottest trends at the moment, as shown in this Google Trends chart below.
However much of the big data discussion is about how to market better to customers, gathering data ABOUT them so companies can sell more to them.
This seems to me to be the wrong way to think about it. Big data should be used to CREATE VALUE FOR CUSTOMERS. From that good things will flow to everyone, including of course attracting the most customers.
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