Scenario planning in practice in an accelerating world

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I have been helping clients implement scenario planning for a quarter century, since 1998, in a very wide variety of contexts.

Therea are situations where scenario planning is more and less applicable. Especially pertinent today, as I have noted:

The greater the uncertainty, the greater the value of scenario planning.

There are many factors that impact the degree of uncertainty in decision-making, including timeframes, industries, information availability, technological context, and many more.
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The most dangerous idea ever is that humans will be vastly transcended by AI

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The advent of next-generation AI has brought into sharp focus one of the biggest divides of all: our perception of humanity’s place in the Universe.

I endlessly read people arguing that humans will be to AI as animals or insects are to humans. They envision a future where AI’s relentless advancement transcends every faculty we possess.

The countervailing stance is that human potential is unlimited. We have deliberately and consistently increased our capabilities and knowledge, and now we will use the tools we have created to continue to advance.

The rise of AI has intensified this debate, leading us to question: Are we, as humans, inherently limited or unlimited?

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If AI ethical advice is as good as human advice, what is its role?

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A very interesting paper The AI Ethicist: Fact or Fiction? reports that there is “no significant difference in the perceived value of the advice between human generated ethical advice and AI-generated ethical advice”.

In fact the random (as opposed to professional ethicist or MBA student) subjects preferred the AI advice, the paper suggests because AI is generally very agreeable.

The question is what is the role of AI in human ethical decisions?
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University education still matters, especially for generational economic mobility

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Formal education is critical for generational mobility, allowing young people to transcend engrained perceptions to not just learn, but demonstrate their capabilities by recognised paths.

Jose Luis Alvarado, dean of the Fordham Graduate School of Education, has written an excellent counter-narrative to those saying that tertiary education doesn’t matter any more, om the deep inequity of the anti-college movement. He shares how he was told at school he shouldn’t aspire to going to college. Others didn’t see his potential, quite possibly because of his family background.
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How to shape strategy and lead for 2050: SxSW Sydney session

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Australia’s national science agency CSIRO and leading deep-tech venture capital firm Main Sequence Ventures sponsored a 2050 content track at SxSW Sydney. It is fantastic to see truly long-term thinking in action in venture capital and tech innovation in Australia (or anywhere).

As part of the track Main Sequence Ventures partner Phil Morle and I had a conversation on The Next Blur: How To Be Ready for a World of Accelerating Change, essentially how to think strategically about 2050 for entrepreneurs and business leaders.  

Here are some highlights from what we covered:

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David Droga at SxSW Sydney on creativity and AI

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David Droga is absolutely someone I wanted to hear from at SxSW Sydney (among many other claims to fame he is the most awarded creative ever at Cannes Lion and CEO of the $16 billion agency Accenture Song).

Creativity was long supposed to be last bastion of human dominion over machines,. Yet over the last 18 months that has been cast into doubt. So what is the future of creativity in a world in which AI is – in some ways at least – becoming creative? It’s best to get it in David’s words. Here are some of most interesting quotes I captured from the session.

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Future of work at SwSX Sydney: beyond productivity and amplifying human potential

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On Thursday I was on the Thriving in the Future of Work panel at SXSW Sydney with Derek Laney of Slack, Mary Lemonis of REA Group, and Dominic Price of Atlassian.

It was a highly stimulating, rich discussion. Below are slivers of the discussion organized around just two of the major themes of the conversation, focusing on my thoughts but also including insights from the other panelists (distorted through my memory and perception): 

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Four pillars boards need to understand about generative AI

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Generative AI is moving past being a buzzword to being woven into the fabric of business strategy and operations. It will undounbtedly lead to innovation, reconfiguration, and transformation across sectors. As it moves to the heart of business models and work structures, boards and executives must not only understand but adeptly navigate its complexities.

Responding to the results of a survey of board members, leading business thinker Tom Davenport asks Are Boards Kidding Themselves About Generative AI? In particular he points to their claimed degree of expertise in generative AI.

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What the democratization of software development means for organizations

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Low-code and no-code software development have been around for a while. Now the rise of AI-assisted software development is pushing the power of software creation to the next level. This provides big opportunities but also risks that need to be managed.

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6 emerging solutions to Information Provenance

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Information provenance has become an absolutely critical issue. In a world of disinformation, AI-generated content, and abuse of intellectual property, we need to know where information has come from and its validity.

There are a range of solutions under development, both technological and human.

In the slides below I present 6 emerging solutions that can help move us to a world where we can verify information provenance and the quality and ownership of information, including a wide range of examples of the leading initiatives.
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