Checking in one-third through the 2020s: future shock is here

By

On 1 May 2023 we were one-third through the 2020s, one-third of the way to 2030.

In January 2020 I was intending to write a blog post saying that most people had no conception how different the world would be by 2030. I’ve been kicking myself that I didn’t get around to it, given that months later it would have been borne out.

As the pace of change increases the period into the future we can see with any semblance of accuracy reduces. The depth of uncertainty about what the world might be like in 2030 is already extreme.

Let’s consider where we stand one-third through the 2020s.

Read more →

4 theories of consciousness for the age of accelerating AI

By

Is the new generation of AI conscious? Or at what point might it become conscious?

To answer this we need to have a clearly defined theory of consciousness. We will never ‘agree’ on the best theory or model, but if we have a set of contenders that are well articulated we can debate with some specificity.

Here are four of the most relevant models for consciousness relevant to the advent of AI. 

Read more →

Redefining distinctive human capabilities with the advent of generative AI

By

What are our distinctive human capabilities, the ones that distinguish us from machines for the longest?

I believe that is perhaps the single most important question we face. If we understand that we can redesign work, focus on developing our unique capabilities, and best complement ourselves with machines.

Read more →

Touch typing is still a vital productivity skill but will that continue?

By

When I was a teenager my father encouraged me to learn to touch type, in those days this being on electric typewriters. His rationale was that if I was preparing my resume I wouldn’t be able to give it to the typing pool to do. Needless to say I have benefited from his encouragement greatly over many years, in more ways than preparing my resume.
Read more →

It is ridiculous to predict when AI reaches human-level intelligence

By

I get very annoyed when I see discussion or predictions of “when AI will reach human-level intelligence”. That implies that intelligence is just one thing that you can measure linearly. Humans do not have even just 7 intelligences, as proposed by Howard Gardner. There are more dimensions to intelligence than we can imagine.

Machines have already vastly outperformed human “intelligence” in myriad domains, including of course almost all games we have invented, among them chess and Go, and a multitude of data-driven judgments and decisions. AI will inevitably continue to exceed the capabilities of both average and exceptional humans in more domains every year.

Read more →

James Lovelock: Gaia and the rise of hyperintelligence

By

James Lovelock, the creator of the Gaia hypothesis, that the Earth is a holistic self-maintaining system, died last week. As a coincidence I read his last book, Novacene, over the weekend before I had heard the news.

Read more →

The subtle path of leadership from centralized to decentralized organizations and society

By

One of the biggest, broadest shifts in place across human society is from centralized to decentralized organizations and structures.

Yet there is massive uncertainty about how far it will go. It is possible we are moving towards a world defined by Decentralized Autonomous Organizations (DAOs), participatory democracy, decentralized finance, and self sovereignty. It is also possible that existing institutions and hierarchical societies and organizations will dominate indefinitely.

What will determine the path forward is the quality of leadership in enabling a decentralized world

Read more →

Looking back at what Living Networks got right 20 years ago

By

I began work as a professional futurist in 1998, and it has been my full-time avocation (other than entrepreneurial endeavors) since 2006. 

For many years my reputation and credibility as a futurist has been significantly supported by my 2002 book Living Networks, which anticipated many developments of the last two decades, including pointing to the rise of social networks and micro-messaging before any of today’s social platforms existed. 

That was not the only thing it got right. 

Read more →

Designing effective hybrid work: leveraging the 5 reasons for offices to exist

By

As we emerge from the pandemic, in most countries office work is resuming at scale, meaning doing hybrid work well is a priority for every organization. This topic currently makes up a considerable portion of my client work.

Many workers and executives have learned to appreciate the many positives of remote work, yet for many reasons very few companies will dispense with offices, since they can play a valuable role in highly productive organizations.
Read more →

LinkedIn enters the freelancer service marketplace: the implications

By

LinkedIn has today entered the service marketplace business. This is substantial news in the rapidly evolving work landscape.

Now anyone can use LinkedIn’s ‘Open to Work’ feature at the top of their profile to indicate availability to provide services, either local or remote, across 250 pre-defined categories (shortly expanding to 500), with for now no fees (or direct invoicing) for freelancers or clients. LinkedIn’s intention is to develop the feature substantially.
Read more →