Scenario planning as a management discipline has a long and rich pedigree. It is just one of a wide variety of tools and processes that have been developed to help executives and organizations build strategies and succeed in an uncertain world. However almost 15 years experience in applying a wide variety of strategic futures tools have lead me to believe that scenario planning is the single most powerful approach available.
This certainly doesn’t mean that scenario planning is always the best approach to help organizations explore the future. However I see it as the single broadest and most powerful tool to facilitate rigorous, structured decision-making about the long-term future in high levels of uncertainty.
As I have written, the greater the uncertainty, the greater the value of scenario planning, and in almost every industry today uncertainty is increasing. The many industries to which we have applied scenario planning include financial services, media, infrastructure, and many others.
In fact, engendering scenario thinking among executives is far more important than scenario planning, however scenario planning is often the best route to that outcome.
Scenario planning is a rich and varied domain, and should be implemented uniquely depending on the context and the objectives. One of the challenges is that many people talk about ‘scenario planning’, often meaning very different things, and not infrequently degrading the term by applying it to unsophisticated approaches to dealing with uncertain futures.
To help a large consumer-goods organization we worked with last year on a scenario planning project to understand the issues, I pulled together an overview of what scenario planning is and a typical process. We have summarized that in the following two page document.
Click on the image for full-size pdf
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Ten years from now: What we will do, have, and not have
By Ross DawsonThis morning I appeared on Channel 7’s The Morning Show talking about the world 10 years from now.
A few of the things I mentioned in the interview include:
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In the future libraries may die, but they will be reborn
By Ross DawsonThe future of libraries is a rich and fascinating topic. It’s over 10 years now since I first gave a keynote on the topic, to an an audience of over 1,200 members of the Australian Libraries and Information Association conference. In 2007 I gained notoriety on the topic when Richard Watson and I put libraries at 2019 in our Extinction Timeline, and have been drawn into strategy sessions with a number of major libraries since then.
Last week The Times (of Ottawa, Illinois) published a piece titled ‘They’ll be reborn’ What does the future hold for libraries?, sparked by discussion of the need for big new library projects in the region.
In the article I am quoted:
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Scenario Planning in Action: What, Why, Success Factors, and Process
By Ross DawsonScenario planning as a management discipline has a long and rich pedigree. It is just one of a wide variety of tools and processes that have been developed to help executives and organizations build strategies and succeed in an uncertain world. However almost 15 years experience in applying a wide variety of strategic futures tools have lead me to believe that scenario planning is the single most powerful approach available.
This certainly doesn’t mean that scenario planning is always the best approach to help organizations explore the future. However I see it as the single broadest and most powerful tool to facilitate rigorous, structured decision-making about the long-term future in high levels of uncertainty.
As I have written, the greater the uncertainty, the greater the value of scenario planning, and in almost every industry today uncertainty is increasing. The many industries to which we have applied scenario planning include financial services, media, infrastructure, and many others.
In fact, engendering scenario thinking among executives is far more important than scenario planning, however scenario planning is often the best route to that outcome.
Scenario planning is a rich and varied domain, and should be implemented uniquely depending on the context and the objectives. One of the challenges is that many people talk about ‘scenario planning’, often meaning very different things, and not infrequently degrading the term by applying it to unsophisticated approaches to dealing with uncertain futures.
To help a large consumer-goods organization we worked with last year on a scenario planning project to understand the issues, I pulled together an overview of what scenario planning is and a typical process. We have summarized that in the following two page document.
Click on the image for full-size pdf
Read more →
Using network perspectives to visualize changing culture and meaning
By Ross DawsonI’m a big fan of Tim Stock‘s work, which weaves together a deep network perspective with a rich view of how culture is changing informed by semiotic analysis. I earlier shared one of his presentations in a post on how the culture of luxury is changing.
The slides to his presentation at SXSW today on Culture Networks and the codes that drive them are available below. As usual, they provide a lesson in beautiful slide presentations to accompany the rich content.
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The inexorable rise of work markets
By Ross DawsonThe role and prominence of online markets for work have soared dramatically over the last few years, but this is just the beginning.
I have been following the rise of online markets for work since Elance was founded in 1999, writing about them in my 2002 book Living Networks and dedicating a large chunk of Getting Results From Crowds to how to effectively manage work markets.
Prominent VC Fred Wilson of Union Square Ventures has just written a post The Nature Of The Firm and Work Markets, referencing, as I did in both of these books, the seminal work of Ronald Coase. Wilson writes:
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Availability in Europe for keynotes/ workshops/ consulting late April to late May
By Ross DawsonI will spending a month in Europe from late April to late May, with a busy but not yet full schedule, so I’m open to offers on possible work in that period.
My trip kicks off with a keynote on The Future of Crowds at TheNextWeb Conference April 25-27 – more on that soon. I was originally planning to do some events in London and Paris shortly before then, but some potential engagements in Shanghai and Singapore mean I will probably arrive in Europe not long before TheNextWeb.
Building on my visit, the consulting firm Across Technology told me they were “impressed by my engaging style as a keynote speaker and talent as a workshop facilitator”, and invited me do a European tour. That has already resulted in them confirming a series of keynote engagements in early to mid-May in locations including Luxembourg, Italy, and Moscow.
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Is Manifesto the right word for our times?
By Ross DawsonIt strikes me that in these these confused and confusing times we should lay down clear thoughts about what we believe in. I am mustering my thoughts across a number domains to express what I think is important.
However one of the questions is what to call these statements. On the face of it ‘Manifesto’ is an admirable description.
From the political domain the Communist Manifesto (1848) and Anarchist Manifesto (1850) flowed through into artistic domain, with notably the Futurist Manifesto (1909) and Surrealist Manifesto (1924), and on into the social domain, with the SCUM (Society for Cutting Up Men) Manifesto (1968) among the many marking the cultural revolution of the 1960s. Since then the technological domain has been rife with statements from the GNU Manifesto (1985) and Hackers Manifesto (1986) through to the bestselling Cluetrain Manifesto (1999).
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Will technology harm or help young people’s brains? A highly nuanced debate
By Ross DawsonPew Internet & American Life Project’s latest study on the future of the internet examines how young people will be affected by technology.
The study selected 1,021 “experts” and asked them to choose between one of the following statements, with no other choices, with these results:
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A vision writ large: The future, personality, and hubris
By Ross DawsonI have just seen the video of Peter Weyland’s speech at TED 2023, shown below. It is a superb piece, bringing together ideas, performance, and production to create a powerful impression in a few minutes.
I had to do some research to find what the speech is actually promoting. At the end of the movie the logo and website for Weyland Industries appears, which takes you to this website that showcases the speech.
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New ideas: Building the organizations of tomorrow
By Ross DawsonI recently spoke at an event organised by Building the Organisation of Tomorrow, a group created by alumni of University of Technology Sydney’s Master of Business in IT Management program.
The format was very stimulating, with three 15 minute presentations, each followed by 15 minutes Q&A and then a ‘disruptive event’, including some awesome satirical musical performances and a planted heckler in the audience. Below are notes from the three speakers.
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