Checking in one-third through the 2020s: future shock is here

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On 1 May 2023 we were one-third through the 2020s, one-third of the way to 2030.

In January 2020 I was intending to write a blog post saying that most people had no conception how different the world would be by 2030. I’ve been kicking myself that I didn’t get around to it, given that months later it would have been borne out.

As the pace of change increases the period into the future we can see with any semblance of accuracy reduces. The depth of uncertainty about what the world might be like in 2030 is already extreme.

Let’s consider where we stand one-third through the 2020s.

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4 theories of consciousness for the age of accelerating AI

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Is the new generation of AI conscious? Or at what point might it become conscious?

To answer this we need to have a clearly defined theory of consciousness. We will never ‘agree’ on the best theory or model, but if we have a set of contenders that are well articulated we can debate with some specificity.

Here are four of the most relevant models for consciousness relevant to the advent of AI. 

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Redefining distinctive human capabilities with the advent of generative AI

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What are our distinctive human capabilities, the ones that distinguish us from machines for the longest?

I believe that is perhaps the single most important question we face. If we understand that we can redesign work, focus on developing our unique capabilities, and best complement ourselves with machines.

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World building and venture capital

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I had lunch today with my old mate Phil Morle, Partner in deep tech venture capital firm Main Sequence Ventures. We talked about how to take entrepreneurs and leaders into thinking beyond obvious linear extrapolations from the present. 

We agree that even the next few years, let alone the next decade, are likely to be absolutely extraordinary. Today, any startup founder’s business premise needs to be framed from a vision of what the future will look like, not on what the world is like today. The success of tomorrow’s billion dollar companies will be built on opportunities that are still emerging.

I described some of the futurist tools that I use with business leaders, such as deconstructing the forces that shape and reshape trends, “backcasting” to explore possible pathways to the future, and various scenario planning methodologies, simple and more complex. 

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Future lift: a concept co-created by Ross Dawson and AI

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“Future lift” is a concept developed by Ross Dawson that refers to the ability of a technology, business, or idea to improve the future. He visualizes it as an upward lift or force that elevates the trajectory of the future.

Some examples of things that provide future lift include:

• Technologies like artificial intelligence and biotechnology that could fundamentally improve health, longevity, and human capabilities.

• Social innovations and movements that help people reach their potential and improve well-being, such as advances in education and skills development.

• New business models and ideas, such as the sharing economy, that provide people and societies more value and prosperity.

• Scientific breakthroughs that could help solve major problems, such as new energy technologies or drought-resistant crops.

The concept of future lift is a useful way to evaluate and explore how different trends, technologies, and ideas could positively shape the future and make the world better. It helps us focus on the uplifting forces of progress.

This is a hallucination by the Anthropic AI chatbot. I have never said or written the words “future lift” that I can remember or find.
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Success at hybrid work when you’re not a big corporation

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We have irreversibly shifted into an era in which remote and hybrid work are the norm. Every organisation needs to transition their working practices to succeed in this new environment. Large corporations move slowly yet are used to embarking on change initiatives. The challenge is very different for small & medium-sized businesses (SMBs), which can be more nimble but have highly limited resources.

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The implications of new mind-reading technologies that discovers what we find most attractive

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What if technology could help you discover what you found most attractive, in people, art, or your environment?

In Alfred Bester’s SF novel The Deceivers, Demi Jeroux evolves her appearance to match what her lover finds most attractive.

Now existing in real life, a recent paper Brain-computer interface for generating personally attractive images describes the process of identifying what people find the most attractive.
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The unlimited opportunities to use ChatGPT to improve education and learning

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ChatGPT is on everyone’s lips, but the issue that has brought perhaps the most controversy is its impact on education.

Articles such as Will ChatGPT Kill the Student Essay? and ChatGPT Will End High-School English point to essays written out of class no longer being a viable teaching tool or assessment of capabilities. ChatGPT is now blocked and banned in New York City public schools.

But what if ChatGPT and the next generation of AI tools can help students to learn? 

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Touch typing is still a vital productivity skill but will that continue?

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When I was a teenager my father encouraged me to learn to touch type, in those days this being on electric typewriters. His rationale was that if I was preparing my resume I wouldn’t be able to give it to the typing pool to do. Needless to say I have benefited from his encouragement greatly over many years, in more ways than preparing my resume.
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In a hybrid world employee and customer experience are vital: how to take them to the next level

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Are we in a “post-Covid” world? Whatever happens, we can be sure of one thing: we now work, live, and do business in a hybrid world that integrates both physical and digital engagement. This is a new world; there is no way we’re going back to how things used to be.

Flexibility and experience at the centre

One of the lessons underlined by the pandemic is that human society is highly resilient. It is true that the adjustment and flexibility required was forced on individuals and companies, but most found themselves able to adapt far faster than they would have imagined possible.

This has created a world in which two elements become critical:
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