Following our extremely popular Trend Blend 2007 and Trend Blend 2008 trend maps comes…. Trend Blend 2009!
Created by Future Exploration Network’s Chief Futurist Richard Watson, also of NowandNext.com, the 2009 trend map moves on from the subway map theme of the last years to show the multi-tentacled hydra that is the year ahead.
Click on the map to download the pdf (810KB)
To pick out just a few noteworthy elements of the trend map:
CORE THEMES include:
Uncertainy
Ageing
Global Connectivity
Anxiety
Power Shift Eastwards
SUBJECT THEMES include:
SOCIETY: Search for control, enoughism
TECHNOLOGY: Simplicity, Telepresence, Gesture based computing
ECONOMY: De-leveraging, 2-speed economies, Shorter product lifecycles
ENVIRONMENT: Bio fuel backlash, Negawatts, Nuclear power
POLITICS: Virtual protests, Globalisation in retreat, Immigration backlash
BUSINESS: Networked risk, Transparency, Asset price uncertainty
FAMILY: Debt stress, Allowable luxuries, Middle class unrest
MEDIA: Flight to quality, Facebook fatigue, Skimming, Micro boredom
POSSIBLE RED HERRINGS include:
Climate change crisis
Fall of US Empire
Nuclear power
Device convergence
GLOBAL RISKS include:
Major Internet failure
Influenza pandemic
Major earthquake in economic centre
Obesity
Electricity shortages
People taking trend maps too seriously
As usual, this is released on a Creative Commons license, so feel free to play with it, adapt it, and improve it!
Wishing everyone a fabulous 2009 – be sure to take advantage of these upcoming trends!
SkyNews Interview: Mobile and web collaboration build high-performance organizations
By Ross DawsonI was recently interviewed on SkyNews about how mobile and web technologies are relevant to organizations today – the video of the interview is below.
A few points that I made in the interview:
* Technology should be focused on getting effective contribution and participation from staff, and building efficiencies and productivity.
* Critical technologies include mobility, web 2.0, and video.
* Business value includes discovering resources in the organizations, getting products to market quicker, and enabling richer business conversations.
* Today many larger organizations are seeking to tap the energy of their younger staff, who expect their employees to use current technologies.
* The key issue today is building collaborative, high-performance organizations that will be successful in challenging times and be positioned for the next economic upturn when it comes.
The state of enterprise software: Andrew McAfee and Leo Apotheker of SAP with Charlie Rose
By Ross DawsonHere Charlie Rose interviews Leo Apotheker, co-CEO of SAP, and Andrew McAfee from Harvard Business School (who spoke at our Enterprise 2.0 Executive Forum last year) about enterprise software. The interview begins at 33:00.
It’s interesting that enterprise software is seen as a topic of relevance to a broad audience. Of course it should be, for many reasons, though it is usually seen as an arcane topic. Also good to see that McAfee’s views are getting a broader airing.
A few particularly interesting comments in the interview:
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Internet car radio is here – internet radio may supplant broadcast
By Ross DawsonAt CES 2009 Blaupunkt is showing the world’s first in-dash internet car radio, powered by technology from Australian-based company miRoamer. The radio accesses the internet via Bluetooth to any mobile phone in the car which has 3G internet access.
Two key issues:
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Video excerpts of keynote speech for Sun Microsystems Partner Executive Forum: The Future of the Network Economy
By Ross DawsonI recently gave the keynote speech for a Sun Microsystems Partner Executive Forum, where Sun brought together the top executives from its extensive partner network for an update and relationship building session.
Below is an 8 min video containing brief excerpts from my keynote, titled The Future of the Network Economy.
Topics covered in the video include:
* In the Depression of the 1930s there was little structural change in the economy; in the current downturn there will be massive change.
* In a connected world you can – and must – reposition yourself across boundaries.
* Scale-free networks provide a common structure across society, web, infrastructure and more.
* Collaborative filtering is where the web is going: it enables us to find what is most relevant to us from infinite content.
* Open innovation requires identifying and stimulating the social networks where relevant ideas are proliferating.
* Our individual and organizational reputations will precede us, giving us and others insights into our expertise, reliability, and credibility.
* Strategy in an economy based on the flow of information and ideas requires us to rethink alliances and identify opportunities in new domains.
* The law of requisite variety means we must be at least as flexible as our environment.
* Studying ants’ collective behavior can help organizations understand how to tap emergence to create value.
Wealth Adaptation Syndrome (WAS): a defining malaise of our times and the opportunities that stem from it
By Ross DawsonI was interviewed last week on social trends in 2009 for a feature story in the Sunday Times magazine in Perth. In order to illustrate my ideas, I coined a term, Wealth Adaptation Syndrome, or WAS.
(One of the great things about the growth of Internet content and search engines is that when you invent a phrase you can check whether anyone has ever written it before. This post is the first ever appearance of the phrase ‘Wealth Adaptation Syndrome’. However note that Sudden Wealth Syndrome (a quite different phenomenon) was commonly referred to during the dot-com boom.)
Wealth Adaptation Syndrome is, quite simply, the process of adjusting to significantly different perceptions of your personal wealth. This applies quite differently depending on starting levels of wealth, but in all cases requires adjustment of not just wealth status, but also social status, and usually behaviors including spending patterns.
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What business books I’m buying and reading
By Ross DawsonI just received my latest book shipment from Amazon.com – it’s a tasty pile and I thought I’d share the list in case people are interested. Friendfeed is a nice way to share my various activities, but doesn’t include book purchases, which I’d probably prefer to share on an ad-hoc basis anyway.
Below are the books, together with brief comments. In most cases I haven’t read them cover to cover yet, but I’ll offer my thoughts either through reputation or having had a browse.
The predominant themes of Enterprise 2.0 and influencer marketing are obvious. We are writing our own Implementing Enterprise 2.0 report, as well as running our Enterprise 2.0 Executive Forum soon, and it’s good to see what else has been written on the topic. As any regular readers of this blog will soon discover, influence will be a major theme for my companies in 2009.
Enterprise 2.0
By: Niall Cook
A succinct report-style overview of Enterprise 2.0 from an executive perspective, written by Niall Cook of PR firm Hill & Knowlton.
ENTERPRISE 2.0 IMPLEMENTATION
By: Aaron Newman, Jeremy Thomas
An extensive examination of Enterprise 2.0 implementation. It is written primarily for technical people, including some code examples, though is certainly accessible to non-technical people.
The Wealth of Networks: How Social Production Transforms Markets and Freedom
By: Yochai Benkler
I’ve been long overdue to get this on my bookshelf. Already a classic, it covers the political and economic implications of a networked world.
Read more →
Our trend map for 2009: The vital Trends, Risks, and Red Herrings you must know
By Ross DawsonFollowing our extremely popular Trend Blend 2007 and Trend Blend 2008 trend maps comes…. Trend Blend 2009!
Created by Future Exploration Network’s Chief Futurist Richard Watson, also of NowandNext.com, the 2009 trend map moves on from the subway map theme of the last years to show the multi-tentacled hydra that is the year ahead.
Click on the map to download the pdf (810KB)
To pick out just a few noteworthy elements of the trend map:
CORE THEMES include:
Uncertainy
Ageing
Global Connectivity
Anxiety
Power Shift Eastwards
SUBJECT THEMES include:
SOCIETY: Search for control, enoughism
TECHNOLOGY: Simplicity, Telepresence, Gesture based computing
ECONOMY: De-leveraging, 2-speed economies, Shorter product lifecycles
ENVIRONMENT: Bio fuel backlash, Negawatts, Nuclear power
POLITICS: Virtual protests, Globalisation in retreat, Immigration backlash
BUSINESS: Networked risk, Transparency, Asset price uncertainty
FAMILY: Debt stress, Allowable luxuries, Middle class unrest
MEDIA: Flight to quality, Facebook fatigue, Skimming, Micro boredom
POSSIBLE RED HERRINGS include:
Climate change crisis
Fall of US Empire
Nuclear power
Device convergence
GLOBAL RISKS include:
Major Internet failure
Influenza pandemic
Major earthquake in economic centre
Obesity
Electricity shortages
People taking trend maps too seriously
As usual, this is released on a Creative Commons license, so feel free to play with it, adapt it, and improve it!
Wishing everyone a fabulous 2009 – be sure to take advantage of these upcoming trends!
Keynote at Direct Selling Association conference in March
By Ross DawsonI’m giving the keynote, titled Embracing the Future, at the Defining our Future conference in the Gold Coast 22-24 March, run by the Direct Selling Association. Below is an introductory video on the event, briefly reviewing the event and main speakers.
DSAA 2009 from Tom Walter on Vimeo.
I’ve never spoken to the direct selling industry before, but certainly the themes I often cover of the evolving network economy and media landscape is highly relevant to the audience. I’ll go into more detail later on what I’ll be covering in my keynote.
Discount for early registration at Enterprise 2.0 Executive Forum ends 24 December!
By Ross DawsonEnterprise 2.0 Executive Forum is shaping up to once again be the premier event in Australia on how Web 2.0, mobile, and emerging technologies are being applied to create value in organizations.
An early registration special of $110 off applies until 24 December, so don’t forget to include it in your pre-Christmas shopping! And remember, there are significant additional discounts for members of AIMIA, Innovation Bay, NSW KM Forum, and PRIA.
A quick reminder of some of the highlights of the event:
* Top Australian and global speakers, including JP Rangaswami of Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein fame, and case studies including Westpac, Corporate Express, Janssen-Cilag etc.
* Deep content in a workshop format from most of the top experts and consultants in the field in Australia, including Kate Carruthers, Stephen Collins, James Robertson and many others.
* Implementing Enterprise 2.0 Report providing a clear roadmap for implementation included in the price of registration – valued at US$195.
* Detailed coverage of highly practical issues including governance processes, implementing policies, establishing mobile workflow, implementing social networks, and far more.
Hope to see you there!
Interviews: Six important forces that will shape 2009
By Ross DawsonI’ve done two radio interviews this morning, asking me for forecasts for the year ahead.
The broader issue I am emphasizing in my current interviews and speaking is that 2009 will bring more change than any other year this decade.
Perversely, a slowing economy will accelerate the pace of change. Many companies will take advantage of the downturn to use technology in innovative ways. Technology ranging from mobile applications to online gaming will become an everyday part of our work lives.
Social change tends to be faster in a downturn. Our attitudes to what is acceptable behavior by the government and companies will rapidly evolve. Technology is shaping society, but society is also shaping technology, particularly in how it allows us to express forcible opinions.
In these interviews for non-professional audiences I briefly covered six important forces that will shape business and society in 2009:
1. Constant partial attention. 2009 will see more people consuming 20 hours or more of media a day. And no, it’s not just the insomniacs. It is due to a phenomenon called Constant Partial Attention, or CPA, in which our attention is constantly divided between a massive array of channels now including mobile Internet, video screens on buses, and more. Over two-thirds of people watch TV while reading. To be successful, we need to thrive on constant interruption.
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