The Exploitation-Exploration dilemma is deeply relevant, not only to business strategy, but to many aspects of our lives.
It is also a fundamental underpinning of intelligence, human and artificial.
The dilemma is essentially: should we continue with what we have, or leave that behind to find something better?
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The advent of next-generation AI has brought into sharp focus one of the biggest divides of all: our perception of humanity’s place in the Universe.
I endlessly read people arguing that humans will be to AI as animals or insects are to humans. They envision a future where AI’s relentless advancement transcends every faculty we possess.
The countervailing stance is that human potential is unlimited. We have deliberately and consistently increased our capabilities and knowledge, and now we will use the tools we have created to continue to advance.
The rise of AI has intensified this debate, leading us to question: Are we, as humans, inherently limited or unlimited?
A very interesting paper The AI Ethicist: Fact or Fiction? reports that there is “no significant difference in the perceived value of the advice between human generated ethical advice and AI-generated ethical advice”.
In fact the random (as opposed to professional ethicist or MBA student) subjects preferred the AI advice, the paper suggests because AI is generally very agreeable.
The question is what is the role of AI in human ethical decisions?
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James Lovelock, the creator of the Gaia hypothesis, that the Earth is a holistic self-maintaining system, died last week. As a coincidence I read his last book, Novacene, over the weekend before I had heard the news.
All change creates both challenges and opportunities.
All life is change: being born, growing, learning, maturing, dying, evolving.
Society is continually transforming: moving from the past to the future, building on our human history, creating new and unique manifestations of humanity.
Our world is morphing: the turning of the seasons, the movement of the continents, shifts in climate and flora and fauna, both natural and anthropogenic.
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In order to gain more clarity for myself on what is important to me, I have created a draft Thought Landscape of primary topics, arranged across four related themes: Thinking, Technology, Business, and Humanity. This will be useful for me in filtering information and guiding the frameworks I develop on these topics.
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For decades one of the most reliable possible predictions has been that official forecasts for renewable energy would underestimate the actual pace of cost reductions and installations.
The chart on the left shows the actual growth in photovoltaic (PV) solar installations in black, compared to the annually updated forecasts from the World Energy Agency in color. Linear thinking prevails, while exponential factors are at play.
An insightful new report from the Oxford Martin School’s Institute for New Economic Thinking Empirically grounded technology forecasts and the energy transition takes a more realistic and empirical perspective on the likely trajectory for costs and uptake of renewable energy. The report concludes that:
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We’ve come a long way this year. Currently over 50% of Americans, close to 60% of Western Europeans, and 24% of the global population have been fully vaccinated against COVID. Every day around one in 200 people in the world receives a vaccination.
Of course this does not portend the end of COVID. This is underlined by recent data from Israel, where there are around 8000 cases daily, despite 78% of the population being double vaccinated.
Pandemic (from pan meaning ‘all’) is used to describe an epidemic that has spread across nations and sometimes the world. Endemic refers to diseases that may be widespread, but with relatively consistent numbers over extended periods.
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An article in Sydney Morning Herald today, What we do now that will be unfathomable by 2050, looks at what we might not be able to imagine about our lives today.
The piece quotes me on cars and parking:
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The US National Intelligence Council has been using scenario methdologies to look into the future since the 1990s.
Today they released the 7th edition of their Global Trends report, examining the risks and challenges of the next 20 years.
Below I have selected some visual highlights from the 156 page report that distill some of key insights.
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