Is Enterprise 2.0 easy or hard?

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Euan Semple, formerly head of knowledge management at the BBC, has written a blog post titled The 100% guaranteed easiest way to do Enterprise 2.0?. His answer (in summary) is:

DO NOTHING

GET OUT OF THE WAY

KEEP THE ENERGY LEVELS UP

So is it that easy? Last week at Barcamp Sydney I bumped into James Robertson, who had recently been at FastForward conference (and been one of the writers on its the excellent conference blog). He told me that at the event there had been a fundamental disagreement between Euan and Andrew McAfee, the Harvard professor who has popularized the term Enterprise 2.0. Euan said that it was easy to make Enterprise 2.0 happen. Andrew said that it wasn’t. Andrew has written a great post about it that is well worth a read for the counterpoint. He says:

But it still felt as if most people weren’t with me — as if most participants in the round table felt that enterprise 2.0 was essentially a historical inevitability. So I asked for a show of hands. I asked “How many of us, when we look into the crystal ball that shows the organization of the near future — say 3 to 5 years from now — see widespread deployment of E2.0 technologies?”

Almost every hand in the room went up.

At this point I completely lost my poker face. I sputtered “You have got to be kidding me!!” or something equally profound as I stared around the room.

Very interestingly, Andrew brings up a analogy with the (lack of) success of knowledge management, a movement I was associated with back in the 1990s before I endeavored to distance myself from it (see my thoughts on the future of knowledge management written in 2004). Andrew says:

I reminded the audience that there were plenty of conferences devoted to knowledge management (KM) systems and approaches in past years, and that these events had almost certainly featured rooms full of enthusiasts wondering exactly what the future was going to look like, and probably paying very little attention to the possibility that the future would be KM-free. I asked the room how many people wanted to be remembered as this decade’s equivalents of KM enthusiasts and evangelists, and got a few chuckles.

James Dellow goes into this comparison in more depth, and seems to suggest that he’s prepared to back Enterprise 2.0 over knowledge management’s success.

I have to say that I’m on Andrew’s side on this one. I count myself as a true believer in Enterprise 2.0, but I’ve seen enough of organizations to know that the status quo has enormous power, and making good changes happen is never easy. In particular, unstructured implementation of social media tools in organizations will yield only a fraction of the value of a planned one. Yes I believe in emergence, but leadership is required to create fertile fields. If people try something once and it’s not useful, they won’t try it again. In particular, there are ways to structure how social media works so it creates valuable results in collaborative filtering and enabling useful connections. You don’t know what the results will be, but clear vision and specific planning and actions will make it far more likely to be valuable than just letting it happen.

The vast potential of Internet radio is in jeopardy

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I often write on this blog about the fabulous things I come across in the wonderful living networks in which we exist. In this case, I have to write about something that sucks real bad.

From back in the mid-1990s I have thought that one of the most awesome applications of the Internet is for everyone to be able to listen to any radio station on the planet. Back in the bad old days of crude electronic distibution technologies (AM and FM radio), we could only listen to high-quality radio from stations in our immediate locality. As soon as the first internet streams were made I started listening to radio stations in the Netherlands, LA, Nigeria, New Zealand, anywhere where there was an early desire to gain listeners farther afield. How fantastic to be able to listen to them all, finding unique DJs and hearing local news from across the globe! I envisaged that soon anyone would be able to find and listen to their very favorite radio stations from the tens of thousands across the planet.

Since then a whole new space has arisen, with not just existing radio stations streaming their sounds onto the net, but a whole new cadre of internet-only radio stations. Soma.FM, out of San Francisco, is my very favorite DJ-selected station I’ve found. Listen to their Groove Salad station – I love it. In addition, an entirely new offering has arisen, in which technology enables us to listen to personalized music. I have written many times before about collaborative filtering music stations like Last.FM and Pandora. Other interesting ones I’ve discovered lately include Finetune and Musicovery.

Now all of this may disappear. In a shocking decision last Friday, the Copyright Royalty Board announced new Internet radio royalty rates, doing exactly what was suggested by the RIAA’s lobby body, effectively tripling the cost of streaming music, effective retroactively from the beginning of 2006, and increasing every year until 2010. Bill Goldsmith of Radio Paradise, a leading Internet radio station, does the math, working out that he will now have to pay out around 125% of his revenue, meaning he immediately has to consider closing down. Mark Cuban says “goodbye to webcasting.” Om Malik asks “Last.FM, Pandora KO’ed by new royalties?” Mike Masnick talks about “internet radio royalty rates designed to kill webcasts.” Indeed, there some bad craziness in the business logic here. In the first instance, putting music webcasting stations out of business isn’t going to increase revenue. Secondly, recording companies make the majority of their money from hits, and hits happen because people hear them. There is massive investment in promoting music to traditional radio and music TV stations, yet for no good reason the opposite attitude to online music streaming.

Now this isn’t to say that Internet radio will die completely. Those with big pockets or associated business models may still do OK. Indeed, new business models will be found. But it is an extraordinary pity that innovation in how all of us discover and listen to music is being stymied. It would be criminal if Last.FM and its peers were forced to close down, leaving us all impoverished. I hope that sense will prevail and this decision will before too long be changed.

[UPDATE] A few resources: Save Our Internet Radio, Save Internet Radio, Online petition to US Congress, email your Congressman about this, and Bill Goldsmith’s blog post about it.

Internet advertising revenue soars – how much further to go?

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The latest Interactive Advertising Bureau statistics show almost $4.8bn in internet advertising revenue for the fourth quarter of 2006, with full year figures reaching $16.8 billion. The graph below shows that the sustained uptrend of the last 4 ½ years, post the dot-com bust, is now being exceeded. One thing that irks me about the IAB figures is that I have never seen them specify whether these figures are for the US or global. I suspect it is the former, which begs the question of the scale of internet advertising revenue in the rest of the world. Given total global advertising revenue is estimated at $406 billion, the IAB figures suggest there is plenty of room for upside, and no immediate likely fears of a plateauing in revenues. Yet the recent exponential growth will be very hard to sustain for an extended period without a subsequent fall or tailing off of advertising spend. The global economy has shown its brittleness in the past weeks. It would certainly be interesting to see where advertisers would cut their spending if forced – perhaps it would be less on the internet, and more on the traditional media channels that are continuing to struggle. Valleywag calls the chart “statistical porn”, promising that every startup will now include it in their presentation…

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On reading the release, I was surprised to see that Randall Rothenberg is now CEO of the IAB. He was previously at Booz Allen Hamilton as Senior Director of Intellectual Capital, where I caught up with him last year to chat about some of my research into influence networks and high-value relationships. He was previously editor-in-chief of the excellent Strategy + Business magazine, though ceded that role to Art Kleiner a couple of years ago to be more involved in the firm’s internal strategic initiatives. Randy’s a very talented guy, so it will be interesting to see which way he takes the IAB.

Playing with new event formats: Mobile Meshwalk

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Shannon Clark, networker extraordinaire and organizer of MeshForum, among other claims to fame, is organizing a neat event with a very innovative format. The Mobile Meshwalk will be held on March 20 from 9am to 9pm. The morning is a “Design Crawl”, where participants visit a number of design companies in San Francisco’s South Park area. In the afternoon a “Walking Camp” small groups will drift, take photos, and brainstorm about mobile advertising based on what they’re seeing on their stroll. Drinks at the end of the day will accompany sharing findings, general discussion, and much jollity. The whole thing is free, enabled by sponsorship by Orange.

The closest thing to this I’m aware of is the “learning journeys” organized by Global Business Network, where participants visit organizations, events, and sites to learn through direct experience of innovation. The concept has been copied and adapted by a range of organizations to help senior executives grapple with emerging ideas and business models. This is a nice variation on the theme – I won’t be able to make it but look forward to hearing back from participants.

Five global trends for 2007

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In the February issue of Voyeur, the inflight magazine of Virgin Blue, I was interviewed for an article about the major trends of 2007. The article is below – as usual allow for journalistic interpretation in the quotations…

FUTURE FOCUS

Ross Dawson is the founder and chairman of Future Exploration Network – an innovative company that helps multinational organisations understand the future technological and social changes that will affect the way they do business. Here Dawson lets us in on the top five trends that will shape our 2007.

1. Web 2.0 revolution

“What we’ve seen in the past five years is a whole new phase of the internet. One of the most important principles of this is participation – everyone can easily set up blogs, upload videos and create music and podcasts. For the first time we are not just consumers but are enabled to become creators, so we have this doubling of media space leading to a world of infinite content, of infinite entertainment.”

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Announcing Future of Media Summit 2007!

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Future of Media Summit 2007 is on the way! Echoing what we did in a world-first at the Future of Media Summit 2006, the conference will be held simultaneously in Sydney on the morning of 18 July and San Francisco on the evening of 17 July, linking cross-continental panels and discussion by videoconference.

The partnership document which describes the event is available below. As last time, we’re looking for partners and sponsors to help bring this fun event to the world. Let us know if you want to chat about this.

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Click here to see the Future of Media Summit 2007 Partnership document

More details will be available shortly – keep posted! In particular, we will soon start to release some of the content which will be at the heart of the event – and we’re always seeking partners for creating extraordinary content about the future of media. For now, here are some excerpts from the document (excuse the corporate-speak…):

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USAToday takes mainstream online news into social networks

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A month ago, in a piece on mainstream media merging with social media, I described how USAToday was one of only two mainstream online news sites that allowed users to select their own feeds from any news source. Now USAToday has announced a massive site revamp that includes features such as user commentary on all stories, story recommendations and ‘most popular’ listings, story tagging, personal spaces with avatars that can be shared with other readers, photo contributions, and exploring network connections between stories.

In a recent strategy project we did for a major online news site, the senior executives kept asking what their major competitors (i.e. online news sites owned by major media corporations) were doing in social media, in order to justify why they should pay any attention to it. They weren’t interested in blogging, commenting, tagging, recommendations, and the like, because they didn’t perceive social media sites as their competition. It was a very frustrating experience. Now a major online news site, owned by a major news corporation (Gannett), is firmly in the space, taking away any excuses from other major players to look at this functionality. Online news sites are in many ways commodities, yet actually have strong loyalty (or rather habitual usage). Adding superior functionality on the lines of USAToday’s revamp is a key point of differentation that can create consistent usage by readers.

Steve Rubel wants USAToday to allow external blogs and feeds to pull into our profiles, while Stowe Boyd thinks that the social networking functionality needs to transcend the news from any one source. Matthew Ingram points out that while there are a minority that want these features, some do (and these are the most loyal!) The point is that USAToday is breaking new ground among its competitors, and this is an experiment. It doesn’t need to be a perfect solution as long as it is a step forward, and it is a major one. Now, hopefully other mainstream online news sites will follow this lead, and the battle for social functionality around news will create more value for everyone.

Blogs, media, parasitism, and symbiosis

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This issue has been discussed before and I’ve written about it several times, though it doesn’t seem to go away. Robert Niles, editor of Online Journalism Review, has written a very interesting post titled Are blogs a ‘parasitic’ medium? He notes :

Over the past months, I’ve heard several journalists make the same comment at various industry forums: That blogs are a “parasitic” medium that wouldn’t be able to exist without the reporting done at newspapers.

Back in April 2006 I wrote a blog post on The symbiosis of mainstream media and blogs, in which I quoted from the Financial Times and commented on this idea of parasitism:

“The present round of chiselling may feel exciting and radically new – but blogging in the US is not reflective of the kind of deep social and political change that lay behind the alternative press in the 1960s. Instead, its dependency on old media for its material brings to mind Swift’s fleas sucking upon other fleas “ad infinitum”: somewhere there has to be a host for feeding to begin. That blogs will one day rule the media world is a triumph of optimism over parasitism.”

Cute metaphor. Yet symbiosis is far more apt than parasitism. Mainstream media in its online form largely gets attention through blogs. Blogs add immense value to the original articles, by identiyfing what’s important, pointing out flaws, adding other perspectives, making visible to all the conversations that stem from media pieces. Blogs depend on mainstream media, with its resources and editorial capabilities, for sure. Yet media is increasingly dependent on blogging for the direction of attention and layer of value-add created.

I later wrote about the collaborative space of blogs and newspapers, discussing how Technorati enables blog commentary on newspaper articles to be visible when you read the original article:

Newspapers and other mainstream media are still the primary reference points for what’s happening in the world, and the first pass of editorial commentary on that. Yet mainstream media increasingly feeds off the dialogue and news that surfaces in the blogosphere. News sites are also vastly enhanced by having the conversations that stem from their articles being visible to all. Anyone who wants to comment on a media story can have their thoughts available to readers globally, not just on a single site, but through an entire world of syndicated media.

In the Future of Media Strategic Framework, the central feature is the Symbiosis of Mainstream and Social Media, as illustrated by the circular flow of the cycle of media (click through for anthe downloadable diagram and explanation of symbiosis):

Robert uses a diverse range of interesting quotes to unpack the idea that blogs are parasitic. Ultimately, the most important reason that this is nonsense is that blogs are collectively a mechanism for us to discover what we as a society (or subset of it) find interesting and useful. Even if there were no useful content in blogs (which of course is also nonsense), their collective function of collaborative filtering is an extraordinary bound forward for the world of media.

Dan Gillmor also notes:

For the record, there are at least a dozen bloggers whose coverage of topics I care about do a considerably better job than any journalist working for a traditional media company.

while Howard Owen comments:

The best way to understand blogging is to blog. That’s why I say: All journalists should blog. You can’t get modern media without understanding blogs, and you can’t understand blogs unless you do it.

Innovation Timeline 1900 – 2050: what we might invent in the next few decades

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Following the big success of the Trend Blend 2007+ trend map, Future Exploration Network partner organization Nowandnext.com has followed up with an Innovation Timeline 1900-2050. It represents visually (and as usual somewhat tongue in cheek) the development of innovation from 1900, starting with the tape recorder, safety razor, tabloid newspaper, aeroplane and cornflakes, and flowing up to 2050, before when we may see such fun, delightful, and useful things as baby exchanges, compulsory biometric ID, sleep surrogates, VR enhancing drugs, face recognition doors, robotic pest control, prison countries, 3D fax, gravity tube, self-repairing roads, reputation trading, individual pollution credits, digital mirrors, stress control clothing, and far, far more. Have a look and play with the ideas. It will be interesting to see whether this gets as much traction as the Trend Blend 2007+ trend map.

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Click here to download the full Innovation Timeline 1900 – 2050 (pdf).

Also see Richard Watson’s blog post on this.

The intersection of value networks and social networks

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I’m at Auckland airport, on my way home from co-presenting a Value Networks Masterclass with Verna Allee. It was a fabulous event, with around 30 attendees. This included a group from the event organizers AgResearch, which is already well under way in applying value networks methodologies, including having a number of people certified in Verna Allee’s ValueNet Works™ methodologies. When I initially described the Value Networks approaches on this blog, I also wrote about Verna’s and my shared interests and background. In the few years since we’ve done anything substantive together, Verna and her network of colleagues, including Oliver Schwabe and John Maloney, have developed the state-of-the-art to make this a business methodology with deep and broad foundations. Part of the intent of the workshop was for Verna to use her value networks work, and for me to contribute my social networks orientation. However we both see not just that they are highly complementary approaches, but also that they represent different facets of a larger whole of network thinking and tools. Given the great success of our collaboration on the workshop, Verna and I will now seek new opportunities to run workshops or development programs on network approaches to business. In particular I’m keen to explore and develop the value network approaches, as I can see many, many applications. Having recently spent some more time on the open Value Networks site, I strongly recommend anyone interested to delve into the resources here. One major organization that the workshop organizers approached said that they had already successfully run a major project using the resources on the website, so they didn’t feel they needed to come to the workshop. I think they would have benefited substantially from the depth on methodologies we went into during the Masterclass, however their comments are a testimony to the quality of the resources on the site. Verna in particular has been more generous than any other consultant I can think of in sharing her resources with the public.

Many insights and thoughts and emerged for me in the process of running the workshop and in conversations with Verna. One simple phrase that she used: “We are in the middle of a huge barter economy,” struck me. It’s absolutely true that financial transactions represent a minority of value created in the economy. Money is central, but value is exchanged in created on many other dimensions. The value networks approaches help us to uncover those hidden value exchanges. Recognizing the multiple facest of value and perceived value are not only critical to effective organizational functioning, but also to designing solid business models. Most of the economy based around Web 2.0, for example, is non-financial, and to extract financial value, you need to recognize where non-financial value is created, and the configurations in which it flows. There will always be institutional power, yet at the same time distributed power is rising. How institutional power and distributed power interact will be central to the structure of the economy and society over the next decades. I will expand on some of these thoughts in more detail later…