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Selection of Ross Dawson Frameworks
Scenario Planning in Action
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Below are summaries of the key points in the overview page:
What is scenario planning?
Generating insights by creating a small set of scenarios for an organization’s future environment that are:
- Relevant to critical business decisions
- Distinct
- Individually realistic and believable
- Together cover the breadth of relevant uncertainties
Why scenario planning?
- The pace of technological and social change is increasing
- Industry structures are rapidly shifting
- Strategy must take uncertainty into account
- Responsiveness to change is vital for success
- The future is increasingly uncertain
Possible objectives for scenario planning
- Foster useful strategic conversations among key executives and managers
- Enhance responsiveness to emerging challenges and opportunities
- Generate and assess innovative strategies and options
- Align strategic planning activities across the organization
- Build deep understanding of business environment drivers
- Communicate strategic perspectives across the organization and beyond
- Create the future
Success factors for scenario planning
- Getting the right question and scope
- Broad and meaningful involvement throughout the process
- Balance between plausibility and stretching thinking
- Bringing in external perspectives
- Creating compelling stories
- Focus on effective communication of the scenarios
Below are summaries of the key points in the example process:
DEFINE
- Prioritize objectives
- Decide focal issues
- Set time horizon
- Define scope
- Name core and extended scenario teams
EXPLORE
- Provoke new thinking
- Brainstorm spectrum of issues
- Identify vital driving forces
- Research key themes
- Distinguish certainties and uncertainties
- Test preliminary scenario frameworks
CREATE
- Establish scenario framework
- Build scenario logics
- Generative compelling narratives
- Ensure internal consistency
COMMUNICATE
- Create scenario documents and outputs
- Enable people to experience the scenarios
- Generate discussion of implications
ACT
- Test current strategies
- Generate strategic options
- Define a core strategy robust against scenarios
- Establish contingent strategies
EMBED
- Establish ongoing strategic conversations
- Build systems to monitor weak signals
- Build responsiveness to change