Comments on: Futurist proved correct! …and today describes the extraordinary social technologies of 2016 (release)

By: lenytar

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By: Steve

Steve — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 07:50:04 +0000

Thanks Ross. Interesting stuff.

By: Ross Dawson

Ross Dawson — Mon, 12 Oct 2009 21:48:41 +0000

The easiest way to think about it is that independent workers are those without a permanent employment contract, since that encompasses a variety of categories including self-employed, contractors, temps, and casuals. However an increasing number of companies allow their permanent staff to do freelance work for other clients, which even further blurs the boundaries... PBS has some nice (though slightly old) stats on the sector and some breakdowns: https://www.pbs.org/now/shows/407/freelance-facts.html

By: Steve

Steve — Mon, 12 Oct 2009 21:43:10 +0000

So what is the definition of “independent workers?”

By: Ross Dawson

Ross Dawson — Mon, 12 Oct 2009 14:27:56 +0000

Thanks Steve! It does depend on definitions, but most sources say that “independent workers” are more than 30% of the US workforce – 40% by 2016 is not a bold prediction.
Christophe, the prediction re video glasses includes augmented reality info on people we meet and much else. Not much of a stretch of the imagination.
There are an array of technologies required to make human-computer voice conversation work seamlessly, so the timeline is highly uncertain. This is not to say that people will not be involved, but an increasing proportion of calls will be handled without human intervention.
This may be more of a stretch for some, but I believe robots will be able to express (though perhaps not feel) empathy better than many humans can. Robot pets are already used very effectively in therapy.

By: Christophe Van Bael

Christophe Van Bael — Mon, 12 Oct 2009 11:14:02 +0000

These are all interesting forecasts – some of them more provocative than others.
What about combinations of these forecasts? Will we be wearing video glasses that show us an augmented reality, and augmented virtual profiles of the people we meet? If so, people may think twice before leaving the privacy of their homes.
Regarding the natural telephone conversations we will have with computers, we’ve come a long way already. Automatic speech recognition and text-to-speech synthesis get more accurate and more robust every day, and speech analytics already allows us to capture basic emotions in telephone speech. The combination of automatic speech recognition and machine learning/meaning-based computing even allows computers to form a basic understanding of customer requests, and to look up appropriate answers in databases around the enterprise and on the internet.
I doubt whether call centre staff will be fully replaced in the near future, though, because there is one important detail that will still set us apart from computers in 2016: the ability to experience genuine emotions and to show empathy. Although I do believe in the use of automated telephone agents for repetitive tasks, enquiries and problem-solving activities, I think I’d rather speak to a live agent for more complicated enquiries and complaints. I don’t know whether we will ever be able (or whether we should even try) to convince the public otherwise. Efficiency is a good thing as long as the customer experience prevails.

By: Steve King

Steve King — Mon, 12 Oct 2009 10:16:34 +0000

I like your forecasts. They are fun and I agree with the general direction.
The one forecast I disagree with is 40% of the work force will be self-employed (I assume this is what you mean by “instead of working for companies”).
I’m not sure what region of the world you are refering to, but in the US about 11% of the work force is self-employed; in Europe it is about 14%.
There is almost no chance this will grow to 40% over the next 7 years. Economic shifts of this magnitude simply don’t happen in that short of time frame – nor is there any indication of a shift of this magnitude happening.

By: Ross Dawson

Ross Dawson — Mon, 12 Oct 2009 00:09:46 +0000

The rapidly evolving boundary of what people can do and computers cannot will define us. And I believe there will always be capacities that will set us apart, though others don’t…

By: Bob Marshall

Bob Marshall — Sun, 11 Oct 2009 23:57:56 +0000

All very cool – but when will computers be able to adjust to variation in demand 1% as well as human beings? (cf Seddon).