Here is my distillation of how we should be thinking about this juncture and the 10 defining factors of this next phase.

Here are the report contents:

Humanity’s Next Quarter Century

Humanity is entering a new phase

We are at a fundamental juncture. Humanity’s future will be very different from its past. The year 2025 and the next 25 years are a critical crossroads where our actions will determine our collective trajectory.

Over the last 25 years and last century, remarkable strides were made in improving global living standards. Health, lifespan, education, and poverty reduction have progressed dramatically. Technology has unlocked new opportunities for connection and progress.

Yet we face growing fractures. Social divisions, misinformation, and the potential misuse of transformative technologies pose real threats.

Our future hangs in the balance: will we harness our advancements for the greater good, fostering inclusion, sustainability, and shared prosperity, or will we falter under the weight of our challenges, driven apart by short-sightedness and conflict?

Our actions now will ripple across generations, determining whether humanity flourishes in spirit and prosperity, or struggles desperately.

Demographic Descent

Global demographic shifts are accelerating, creating profound implications for societies and economies worldwide. Fertility rates are plummeting in many regions, particularly in developed countries, where population growth has slowed or reversed, putting immense pressure on the social systems that support aging populations.

By contrast, regions like Africa and the Middle East are experiencing sustained population growth, driven by younger, rapidly expanding demographics. This divergence raises critical questions about the global balance of economic power and labor forces: how will shrinking workforces in aging nations sustain economic productivity and care for older generations? Conversely, how will younger, faster-growing regions create enough jobs and opportunities to capitalize on their demographic dividends?

It looks increasingly likely that global population will peak and being declining before 2050. Addressing the resulting challenges will demand innovative policies, international cooperation, and a reevaluation of how societies structure and sustain themselves.

Power Shift

The 21st century is witnessing a historic shift in global power dynamics, reshaping the geopolitical and economic landscape. China has emerged as a formidable counterbalance to the United States, not just in economic might but also in technological influence, trade, and strategic leadership.

India, with its vast population and burgeoning economic reforms, is on a similar path, steadily rising to claim its place as a global powerhouse. Meanwhile, Africa’s youthful population and untapped economic potential position it as a future center of energy, innovation, and influence.

These changes are moving us toward a multipolar world where no single nation dominates, but rather, regional powers rise to create new centers of gravity. This redistribution of influence will affect global markets, alliances, and technological competition, demanding that nations adapt to a world in which power is more decentralized and leadership emerges from a broader set of players.

Climate Crunch

The climate crisis has escalated far faster than anticipated, placing us on a precarious path where previous targets for mitigating global warming seem increasingly out of reach. Temperature rises initially projected for 2050 have already begun to materialize, forcing a fundamental shift in how we approach this global challenge.

The impacts are becoming more visible and severe: intensifying heatwaves, floods, wildfires, and hurricanes are disrupting communities worldwide. This acceleration is pushing societies toward a dual strategy: managing the real-time impacts of a changing climate while simultaneously working to slow its progression. We will face the monumental challenge of relocating massive populations from areas threatened by rising sea levels and extreme weather.

Both the degree of climate change and our ability to respond effectively are massive uncertainties. Success will require massive deployment of clean energy, carbon capture, sustainable practices, and enhanced climate resilience. Survival and growth will require unprecedented global cooperation, technological innovation, and societal transformation.

De(Centralization)

The internet and emerging technologies have spurred a powerful wave of decentralization, enabling individuals and communities to connect, communicate, and create value without traditional gatekeepers. New digital infrastructures are challenging established power structures and creating opportunities for distributed decision-making and ownership.

Blockchain technologies, decentralized finance, and open-source platforms exemplify this trend, offering tools for greater individual empowerment and global collaboration. However, these forces have been met with counterpressures: governments are increasing regulation to reassert control, while corporate entities continue to consolidate their dominance over digital platforms and data.

This tension between centralization and decentralization raises critical questions about the future of power and agency in society. The coming decades will determine whether decentralization creates more equitable opportunities for individuals and small business, or if centralization’s control prevails. Success will require finding new models that balance innovation and individual freedom with effective governance and trust.

Human-AI Nexus

The rapid evolution of artificial intelligence is fundamentally transforming the nature of work, ushering in a future where humans and AI collaborate more seamlessly than ever before. As AI systems take on increasingly complex tasks, from creative work to strategic decision-making, the traditional roles of human labor are being redefined across every sector of the economy.

This transformation is creating new opportunities for human-AI collaboration, where machines augment rather than replace human capabilities. Humans’ distinct and unique capabilities, amplified by AI, will continue to be immensely valuable. Yet there will inevitably be massive disruptions in work and organizations.

Our actions today and in coming years and decades will determine whether AI leads to widespread prosperity or deepening inequality. Leaders in all sectors need to design human-first companies, economies, and societies. Building this productive partnership between humans and AI will require reimagining not just work, but who we are.

Wellbeing Revolution

We are experiencing a transformative shift in medical science and societal attitudes toward health. Advances in genetics, genomics, precision medicine, AI diagnosis, and personalized healthcare are enabling unprecedented treatment of diseases while focusing on maximizing wellness and extending vitality. This revolution promises not just longer lifespans, but dramatically improved “healthspans.”

Predictive and preventative medicine is reshaping care, helping individuals avoid illness and enhance overall health. The integration of wearable technology, continuous health monitoring, and AI-driven insights is democratizing access to health information. However, this revolution faces real challenges: the rising costs of healthcare, unequal access to cutting-edge treatments, and escalating mental health issues in a fast-paced world.

The threat of pandemics—natural or human-created—highlights the critical importance of biosecurity and managing the rapid evolution of biological technologies. As we move forward, society must balance the tremendous potential of personalized medicine with ethical considerations and equitable access.

Cognitive Evolution

As laid out in Thriving on Overload, human brains were not designed for our current information environment of overwhelming information. Many people are allowing themselves to become lost and deeply distracted in the flood of data. However many are using today’s unprecedented access to quality information and supporting technologies to be far more effective in information processing and sense-making than ever before.

Now AI is transforming the workplace and provides the potential to augment how we think, learn, and make decisions. AI for intensely personalized education will allow people to develop their skills and knowledge precisely when and how they need it.

This transformation risks creating a deep divide. Those who actively embrace and leverage these tools to evolve their cognition will thrive, while others may fall behind, unable to adapt to the demands of a fast-paced, information-rich world. Bridging this gap will require not only equal and open access to these technologies but also a cultural shift that encourages individuals to take responsibility for their cognitive growth.

Torn Together

Wealth polarization and social divides are widening, creating significant risks to societal cohesion and stability. Economic inequalities, exacerbated by technological disruptions and global economic shifts, have left many people feeling excluded and disempowered, while a small segment of society accumulates unprecedented wealth and influence.

Social cohesion is further eroded by cultural and political divides, fueled by misinformation, partisanship, and competing narratives about fundamental social values. The rise of echo chambers and algorithmic content delivery has accelerated these divisions, making it increasingly difficult for different groups to find common ground or even share a basic understanding of reality.

These divides threaten to fragment societies, leading to rising discontent, distrust in institutions, and potentially open conflict. The next decades will be pivotal in determining whether societies can reverse these trends. Creating a more cohesive future will require transformative policies, innovations in wealth distribution, and sustained efforts to rebuild trust between individuals, institutions, and governments.

Into Space

We are on the threshold of humanity’s emergence as a true space-faring race, with permanent lunar and Mars settlements on the verge of reality. Advancing technologies and economic opportunities—such as asteroid mining, space tourism, and off-world hyper-scale energy generation—are paving the way for a sustainable future that could transform life on Earth.

Global collaboration will be essential, but the rise of commercial space competition adds complexity to this new frontier. Nations and private enterprises must work together to establish fair and inclusive frameworks for exploration, ensuring space benefits all of humanity rather than exacerbating inequalities or conflicts.

This transformative era carries immense potential but also significant uncertainties. Will humanity rise to the challenge of cooperation, or will space become an extension of Earth’s divisions? The potential of space is a threshold to reshape and expand human future, but its outcomes remain tied to the choices we make today.

Post-Humanity

Technological advancements are pushing humanity toward a new era, where the boundaries of what it means to be human are being redefined. Breakthroughs in radical life extension, genetic editing, brain-computer interfaces, and AI augmentation are offering unprecedented opportunities to enhance human capabilities and extend lifespans.

These developments are creating a divide between those who embrace radical human enhancement and those who advocate for preserving natural human limitations. The emergence of “transhumanist” movements alongside conservative bioethical positions highlights the deep philosophical and practical challenges ahead. Questions of identity, consciousness, and the very nature of humanity are immediate.

The concept of the “post-human” is no longer confined to science fiction but is becoming an imminent reality. As these technologies mature, society must grapple with profound ethical and societal questions: how far should we go in augmenting ourselves, who will have access to these enhancements, and what implications will this have for human equality? How will we navigate this future while preserving our human values?

Creating our Future

Nothing is predestined.

The future is ours to create.

In 2025 we have reached a fundamental threshold. Who we become will not be the same as who we have been.

We have to treat this as an opportunity. We cannot hang on to the past. We must embrace the reality of accelerating change and turn it in the directions we want to go.

It is everyone’s responsibility to be keenly aware of the intense challenges, to see the full scope of the positive potential, and to act to move us towards the most promising possibilities.

One thing is for sure: the second quarter of the 21st century wlil always be seen as the pivot point for humanity, from its formative years to its extraordinary future, whatever it holds.

It is also a fundamental underpinning of intelligence, human and artificial.

The dilemma is essentially: should we continue with what we have, or leave that behind to find something better?

Explore-exploit’s role in intelligence

The exploitation-exploration dilemma lies at the very roots of the evolution of intelligent life.

The first lifeforms that could move had a choice: whether to move and in which direction. Their brains were completely focused on this fundamental choice between options.

Dopamine-driven foraging strategies evolved in early species to optimize between existing and potential food sources.

These structures still drive human behaviour today, including in how we consume information, as I explore in Chapter 3 of Thriving on Overload.

The increasing value of openness to experience

Another critical point is the personality dimension of ‘Openness to Experience’, which is essentially our propensity to seek or be open to new possibilities.

As the pace of change increases, the value of openness rises.

In Chapter 5 of Thriving on Overload I examine how we can usefully increase our openness to experience and ideas.

This allows us explore, discover, and benefit from more of the growing array of options and possibilities available to us.

Explore-exploit in life and business

Once you think about it, the exploit-explore dilemma plays a central role in almost all aspects of life and business. Here is a small handful of examples:

Innovation strategy: Innovation is about renewal: evolving your business as the world changes. How do you allocate limited resources between supporting established business models and building new unproven opportunities?

Customer relationships: Do you focus on creating value with your existing customers, or allocate more resources to finding new customers or addressing new market segments?

Career choices: Do you continue in a job that is rewarding and safe despite its drawbacks, or seek new opportunities that involve uncertainty and high degrees of challenge?

Holiday choices: Do you keep going back to places that you know well and love, or try new adventures that might offer new possibilites but could also disappoint?

Relationships: Long-term relationships require investment and offer security but go through ups and downs; at what point do you leave for the deep uncertainty of being single but also the possibility of something better?

Explore-exploit in AI

The exploit-explore dilemma has been central to many aspects of the development of artificial intelligence, often by modelling our understanding of human intelligence. Here are a few examples:

Reinforcement learning: This fundamental approach to AI was conceived from studying human exploit-explore strategies in human learning. It was originally laid out by Richard Sutton and Andrew Barto in their seminal1998 book Reinforcement Learning.

Attention mechanisms: Attention mechanisms in AI balance exploring new patterns and exploiting known ones. Transformer models, which underlie modern generative AI, efficiently distribute attention across tokens by focusing on the most relevant data.

Evolutionary algorithms: A fundamental paramter is the degree of evolution across generations, varying from only selecting the best-performing entities to incorporating mutations that do not offer evident advantaage.

Generative Adversarial Networks: The generator can focus on very slight variations to existing outputs that have fooled the discriminator, or try more dramatic differences that could lead to lower performance but may uncover more promising avenues.

Training data selection: Existing validated data sets provide consistent quality outputs. Expanding training data to include lower quality sources can increase breadth of competence but could make spurious or incorrect outputs more likely.

Explore more than exploit

Whenever you are considering whether to stay with what you have or to try something new, you are expressing a deep facet of your intelligence.

But as the pace of change gets faster, and these strategies are incorporated into AI, the balance of value is shifting ever-more to exploring.

Apply your intelligence to these fundamental choices, while tending more to exploration.

I endlessly read people arguing that humans will be to AI as animals or insects are to humans. They envision a future where AI’s relentless advancement transcends every faculty we possess.

The countervailing stance is that human potential is unlimited. We have deliberately and consistently increased our capabilities and knowledge, and now we will use the tools we have created to continue to advance.

The rise of AI has intensified this debate, leading us to question: Are we, as humans, inherently limited or unlimited?

My thinking on this was clarified and crystalized by reading David Deutsch’s seminal work “The Beginning of Infinity”, in which he lays out an extensive and powerful case for human knowledge and abilities being unbounded.

He argues that humans are “universal explainers” who have created and learned to use scientific principles to indefinitely improve our theories, knowledge, and understanding,

At any point our understanding is limited and incorrect, but by continuing to apply the same principles we will consistently and indefinitely advance our knowledge.

He writes:

The astrophysicist Martin Rees has speculated that somewhere in the universe ‘there could be life and intelligence out there in forms we can’t conceive. Just as a chimpanzee can’t understand quantum theory, it could be there are aspects of reality that are beyond the capacity of our brains.’ But that cannot be so. For if the ‘capacity’ in question is mere computational speed and amount of memory, then we can understand the aspects in question with the help of computers – just as we have understood the world for centuries with the help of pencil and paper. As Einstein remarked, ‘My pencil and I are more clever than I.’

In terms of computational repertoire, our computers – and brains – are already universal (see Chapter 6). But if the claim is that we may be qualitatively unable to understand what some other forms of intelligence can – if our disability cannot be remedied by mere automation – then this is just another claim that the world is not explicable. Indeed, it is tantamount to an appeal to the supernatural, with all the arbitrariness that is inherent in such appeals, for if we wanted to incorporate into our world view an imaginary realm explicable only to superhumans, we need never have bothered to abandon the myths of Persephone and her fellow deities.

So human reach is essentially the same as the reach of explanatory knowledge itself.

The track record of humanity, which in just the last few thousand years has grown from superstitions to understanding in great depth our Universe from sub-atomic particles to the structure of the cosmos, sitting on a planet in a far-flung galaxy, is testament to our ability to develop knowledge.

Indeed, the pace of (human) scientific progress and knowledge is not just fast, it is accelerating, by just about any measure you choose.

People compare the exponential technologies underlying AI with our finite cognition and conclude we will be left behind. This is so deeply flawed that I will address this in more detail in another post.

In short, humans are very clearly not static. We co-evolve with the technologies we have created, constantly extending the boundaries of what it means to be human.

It is possible that to keep pace we will need to augment ourselves with brain-computer interfaces and other cognitive amplification technologies. As I wrote in my 2002 book Living Networks,

the real issue is not whether humans will be replaced by machines, because at the same time as computing technology is progressing, people are merging with machines. If machines take over the world, we will be those machines.

Believing we’re doomed to be dwarfed by super-intelligent AI is essentially betting against humanity.

It is giving up. It is lacking faith in humanity. It’s a surrender to superstition, to the idea that there is something undefined and unknowable beyond our capacity to imagine or understand.

The essence of being human is this: We face and solve problems and we progress. The concept of things we cannot understand goes against everything that humans have demonstrated themselves to be.

In an era defined by the rapid rise of AI, it is crucial that we maintain faith in the human capacity for limitless growth and expansion. The unfolding story of our species is not one of succumbing to imagined limits but one of constantly redefining what is possible.

Our future is inevitably one of Humans + AI – our species amplified by the intelligences we have created.

We will not be subsidiary players in this union. Our ability to understand and grow and frame what this incredible pairing can achieve is unlimited.

At this point we have no solid evidence how this will turn out. It is your choice:

Believe humans are intrinsically limited and that we will be as cockroaches to superior intelligences.

Or bet on a species that is intelligent and adaptable enough to have created everything we have so far, and our ability to continue to progress and grow, harnessing the power of our inventions.

In fact the random (as opposed to professional ethicist or MBA student) subjects preferred the AI advice, the paper suggests because AI is generally very agreeable.

The question is what is the role of AI in human ethical decisions?

I have long said that ethics is a distinctly human capability and ever-more important as our actions shape the future of humanity. If AI can provide ethical guidance that is as good as human input, it is extremely valuable.

Yet it is, of course, not a substitute.

Advice is not the same as making choices. Our ethical decision-making can be enhanced through better advice, or access to advice.

Access to a professional ethicist may not always be available, but AI is readily accessible.

The principle of not entirely relying on advice from machines (or humans) remains crucial. Nevertheless, high-quality input is invaluable in shaping our thinking and choices, both as individuals and as a society.

From here we need to work out the role of AI in our ethical decision-making. Do we use it at all? Where do we draw on its input? How do we weight that?

From a bigger frame, given the import of our ethical decisions today, how do we use all available resources – including AI – to shape a better future?

While I was always familiar with the idea of Gaia and was aware that Lovelock’s ideas were controversial, I didn’t realise how solid his scientific grounding was, despite working largely outside the academic world.

In Novacene Lovelock proposes that we are entering a new era in which humans will inevitably be transcended by the ‘electronic’ intelligences that we create. The core message of the book is that he expects that the AI we generate to want to work with humans to maintain Gaia and thus our existence, since even the machines won’t survive a catastrophic collapse.

I don’t agree with all the ideas in the book; I certainly don’t believe it is inevitable that humans will be completely transcended for the imaginable future. However Lovelock’s underlying thinking and framing is not just original and provocative, it is valuable in always seeing us in the context of the system that sustains us.

Novacene is a short book, it doesn’t take long to read, and gives a very broad framing for both the planet and the coming rise of ‘hyperintelligence’. Recommended. 

All life is change: being born, growing, learning, maturing, dying, evolving.

Society is continually transforming: moving from the past to the future, building on our human history, creating new and unique manifestations of humanity.

Our world is morphing: the turning of the seasons, the movement of the continents, shifts in climate and flora and fauna, both natural and anthropogenic.

Some people prefer the ways things are, the known, even if change might lead to better things.

Others embrace the unknown for the possibilities it offers.

It is all in our attitude.

We can focus on the fact that a changing world means we cannot continue doing what we have always done, and will need to change ourselves.

But we can be sure of one thing.

As long as the universe is changing… there will be opportunities.

It seems as if the universe in which we are set is changing faster than ever, an outcome of our own making.

This means that there will be more opportunities than ever before.

Our first task is simply to look for and perceive just a fraction of the bounteous opportunities stemming from unrelenting change.

We must also acknowledge and respond to the potential problems of change, but these should not be our primary focus.

Even in change that initially seems overtly negative we can find opportunities, not just in business but in turning them to positive societal impact.

To see a possibility is the critical first step to realizing it.

Feel blessed to live in a time of extraordinary change.

Because it means we live amidst unpredecedented opportunity.

The scope of topics presented is of course very broad, but laying them out in this way helps me to frame what I am looking for and thinking about as we push forward into the future.

Below is the list of topics, though note that as shown in the diagram, the themes blend into one another, they are not distinct.

Humanity

Future of humanity
Collective intelligence
Future of democracy and government
Post-capitalism and future of society
Future of media
Future of work and education

Business

Future of organizations
Future of events
Collaborative value creation
Social enterprise
Parallel entrepreneurship
Innovation
Platforms and ecosystems
Network economy
Next phase of business

Technology

Enterprise technology
Bio/ energy/ materials tech
Human Computer Interfaces
VR/ AR/ XR/ extending reality
Artificial intelligence
Exponential technologies

Thinking

Futurist thinking
Foresight practices
Concept visualization
Thinking structures
Thriving on Overload
Frame of optimism and possibility

The chart on the left shows the actual growth in photovoltaic (PV) solar installations in black, compared to the annually updated forecasts from the World Energy Agency in color. Linear thinking prevails, while exponential factors are at play.

An insightful new report from the Oxford Martin School’s Institute for New Economic Thinking Empirically grounded technology forecasts and the energy transition takes a more realistic and empirical perspective on the likely trajectory for costs and uptake of renewable energy. The report concludes that:

“a greener, healthier and safer global energy system is also likely to be cheaper”

Going beyond the time-series analysis that has been characteristic of most of the institutional energy forecasts to date, the authors use a stochastic method that accounts for the learning curve in improving technologies, with the added advantage of providing more rigorous uncertainty ranges for the forecasts.

Below is the summary of their forecasts for a range of energy sources:

Source: Empirically grounded technology forecasts and the energy transition

They then go on to examine a set of scenarios for faster and slower global transitions from fossil fuels to renewable energy, taking into account these more realistic forecasts and their uncertainty ranges.

In short, there is not an economic cost or trade-off in shifting from current energy to renewable energy. Even not taking into account the massive benefits of reducing carbon emissions, it will be cheaper to shift faster to renewables.

Understanding this only needed taking into account the compounding returns of investing in research and deployment, which has been blindingly obvious over the years, and in stark contrast to the linear thinking that has driven the energy industry and politicians.

As author Bill McKibben writes about the report:

They note that all the forecasts over those years about how fast prices would drop were uniformly wrong, invariably underestimating by almost comic margins the drop in costs for renewable energy. This is a massive problem: “failing to appreciate cost improvement trajectories of renewables relative to fossil fuels not only leads to under-investment in critical emission reduction technologies, it also locks in higher cost energy infrastructure for decades to come.” That is, if economists don’t figure out that solar is going to get steadily cheaper, you’re going to waste big bucks building gas plants designed to last for decades.
…
The cost of fossil fuels is not falling; any technological learning curve for oil and gas is offset by the fact that we’ve already found the easy stuff, and now you must dig deeper. But the more solar and windpower you build, the more the price falls—because the price is only the cost of setting up the equipment, which we get better at all the time.

Let’s hope that this paper and the thinking behind start to have more sway among the decision-makers that will drive our energy and environmental future.

Of course this does not portend the end of COVID. This is underlined by recent data from Israel, where there are around 8000 cases daily, despite 78% of the population being double vaccinated.

Pandemic (from pan meaning ‘all’) is used to describe an epidemic that has spread across nations and sometimes the world. Endemic refers to diseases that may be widespread, but with relatively consistent numbers over extended periods.

As we move closer to the point where most of those who want to be vaccinated have been, for now just in developed countries, we will have to start considering ourselves past the pandemic phase, and into the endemic phase.

COVID isn’t going away

A recent survey of leading epidemiologists by the leading journal Nature suggests it is highly unlikely that coronavirus is ever completely vanquished, with almost 90% believing COVID will continue to circulate. A minority believe that it can be eliminated from some regions, but not across the world.

As the article explores in detail, there are substantial uncertainties in the current and long-term efficacy of our current vaccines, vaccine uptake, and other factors including contagion through animals, which has already been demonstrated.

Beyond lockdowns

Most countries in the developed world are living in various degrees of lockdown or restrictions. The impact on many businesses, not to mention the mental health of many, has been and continues to be brutal.

Clearly these measures cannot continue indefinitely. When we have done what we can by vaccinating most of the willing, we will have to consider the virus as endemic. There may still be pointed breakouts of the disease, but these will be punctuation marks in an ongoing state of living with COVID.

Disparate national responses and travel reopening

As we have already seen, there will continue to be a very wide spectrum of responses by governments, from laissez-faire to still continuing to go in and out of lockdowns as cases rise to minimize infections.

International travel will open up relatively freely between nations that have accepted that COVID is endemic, while some nations will long keep restrictions. Two weeks quarantine will minimize travel to some countries for a long time to come.

The divide between the vaccinated and the unvaccinated

Layering on top of the many deep political, economic, and social divides we are experiencing around the world, society will begin to be divided into those who are vaccinated and those who choose not to be.

In addition to the different levels of access to work, travel, entertainment and far more that many governments and some companies will mandate, the vaccinated will often not want to be around those who have not had the vaccine.

Divides within families and communities are already appearing and will often become more accentuated, with the potential for unfortunate escalation in division and conflict.

Evolving work and offices

The debates around whether and how to resume ‘normal’ office work and hours will continue.

Some companies will continue to strive to resume work as it was before, while others will soon establish relatively stable configurations of hybrid work between home, office, and third spaces that can adjust depending on the current degree of restrictions and caution.

Regular vaccinations

Scientists are still gathering data, however the latest evidence from Israel suggests that vaccines will need to be renewed, either because their efficacy degrades, or because new variants make them less effective.

Many have compared COVID in its possible endemic form to flu: highly transmissible, never eradicated, and evolving from season. A key difference is in its severity and mortality rate, and potential long-lasting effects.

The need for human touch

Humans are highly social animals, who need to be around others, and benefit immensely from the touch of others, be it in a handshake, cheek kiss, hug, or on occasion more.

There is a danger that in a world of endemic COVID some, or even many, will allow their fears of infection to limit their social engagement, particularly with strangers. We may need to develop new behaviors that allow us contact while minimizing risk.

Learning to live with COVID

Almost everyone has been impacted by COVID, some with deaths in the family, many with businesses or livelihoods lost, others with the emotional impact of isolation and lack of certainty.

Acknowledging COVID as a likely ongoing factor in our lives will require still more adjustment. The shape of life amid endemic COVID is not yet clear, but we can begin to get some sense of what it will be like. We will need to learn to live our lives to the fullest within its constraints.

The piece quotes me on cars and parking:

Some house-hunting friends recently warned me off looking at properties with off-street parking, explaining that autonomous cars will become the norm and car parks will be obsolete. Having just paid a motza for a house with a car spot, I nearly choked on my tea. But futurist Ross Dawson agrees. He says autonomous cars will negate the need for car parks in the future, “I would say car parks are probably, and hopefully, one of the things which we’ll look back at as an extraordinary waste, which will seem mind-boggling in the future”.

The idea is that self-driving cars will be rented rather than owned and won’t need parking spaces because they just … won’t park. Dawson says the shift to autonomous electric vehicles is inevitable and a much safer alternative: “The best autonomous vehicles are far better than the average human driver by a long shot.”

There are two ideas here:

One is that at some point we will inevitably be completely horrified that we allowed drunk, tired, distracted, and incompetent drivers on the roads, not to mention that even today few humans are usually safer drivers than autonomous vehicles. Recently there were 1.35 million people killed on the roads around the world last year, including over 200,000 deaths in each of China and India. It is the leading cause of nonnatural death for Americans, with 40,000 dying each year. And while we have eliminated lead in petrol, cars continue to spew fumes around our schools and living environments. These incredible costs will seem barbarian and horrific in years to come.

In addition, once we shift substantially to autonomous cars, we will need a fraction of the parking space we currently have. What useful can we do with the numerous car parks scattered throughout our cities? Imagine your streets with trees, nature, and parks instead of rows of cars on either side.

There are many other things we may well look back on in horror, as most of us do for smoking in restaurants and workplaces and on airplanes, buses, and trains, phenomena within memory for many of us.

Many of our carbon-emitting behaviors, including burning low-quality coal, petrol-fueled cars, and widespread deforestation, not to mention widespread opposition, let alone reluctance, to taking substantive measures to improve.

The extent of carnage of animals in feeding us will likely seem bemusing. Over 50 billion chickens, 1.5 billion pigs and half a billion sheep are slaughtered each year, too often in unsanitory conditions or at the culmination of miserable lives.

I suspect that we will look at our current education system in disbelief, once we can transition from the legacy of institutional indoctrination to nurturing childrens’ unique potential.

I do hope that we will look back on our structures for (supposedly) representational democracy with dismay, however that does depend on us creating a better future for democracy, which is by no means as given.

Undoubtedly there are many other currently accepted activities and social structures that we will look back at in horror.

What do you think they might be?