Scenario planning: strategy for the future of global financial services

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For my keynote at the Vision 2020 Financial Services conference last month in Mumbai I prepared some ‘quick and dirty’ scenarios for the global financial services industry landscape in 2020 from a technology perspective. Below is an overview of the content I used in my presentation. The complete slide deck from my keynote is also available, though it needs the explanation as below.

WARNING: These are scenarios prepared for a presentation, so they are far from rigorous or comprehensive. True scenarios should have fully developed storylines that evoke the richness of how the scenario unfolds and could actually happen. To be truly valuable, scenarios need to be created for a specific organization or strategic decisions – generic scenarios are of limited value. Always work with someone highly experienced in the field – most consultants that claim to do scenario planning are making it up. The Driving Forces and Critical Uncertainties identified below are highly summarized, and would be presented and aggregated very differently in a real scenario project. OK warning over, on with the content…

Scenario planning

Scenario planning recognizes that beyond a certain degree of uncertainty forecasting is of limited value (or can even be detrimental to good decisions). The process of creating a set of relevant, plausible, and complementary scenarios (more than the scenarios themselves) can be invaluable in creating and implementing effective, responsive strategies.

The heart of the scenario planning process is distinguishing between Driving Forces (consistent long-term trends) and Critical Uncertainties (unpredictable elements). Once these are identified, they are brought together to create a set of scenarios that reflect both what you know and what you don’t know about how the environment will change.

The image below shows a sanitized version of the process for a scenario planning project I ran for a major financial institution. This was quite a streamlined process relative to a comprehensive scenario planning project, however was designed to bring the insights directly into the existing group and divisional strategy process.

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Below are the scenarios in detail:

  • Driving Forces: Global Financial Services
  • Critical Uncertainties: Global Financial Services
  • Scenario Framework for Global Financial Services
  • Four Scenarios for Global Financial Services

DRIVING FORCES: GLOBAL FINANCIAL SERVICES

1. Economic shift

Economic power is shifting to the major developing countries. The BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China) together host close to half the world’s population, and their pace of economic development means that before long there will be multiple economic superpowers. In addition, global economic growth is shifting to the virtual, and developing countries will gradually wean themselves from primary and secondary industries to be significantly based on knowledge-based services.

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Creating the next phase of entrepreneurial capital

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I have written and been quoted many times before on the rise of a new layer of capital markets and the segmentation of venture capital. Venture capital certainly will continue to play an important role in years to come, but many major variations on the current model will emerge. One of the most important drivers of change is the far lower capital-intensity of web and technology businesses. With powerful development platforms, ready access to global talent, and speed to market being of the essence, many ventures can get going with minimal capital. The proliferation of less-capitalized companies has been a feature of the entrepreneurial landscape over the last year, supported by a slow drying up of capital from venture firms.

In today’s New York Times an article titled A New Kind of Venture Capitalist Makes Small Bets on Young Firms focuses on Union Square Ventures and in particular Fred Wilson, the new superstar of web VCs. The piece starts out by describing how Etsy, now the leading crafts marketplace, was delighted in Union Square Ventures to find a VC firm willing to take just a 5 percent stake in the company. Most VC firms demand at least 20%, and usually seek strong or dominant influence on the company’s strategy.

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The Future of Financial Services – the Indian perspective

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I’m writing at the Vision 2020 Financial Services Sector conference in Mumbai where I’m giving the keynote speech. I’ll post a review of my presentation later, and here will post notes from the interesting speakers and my conversations on the day, combined with my own reflections.

[UPDATE:] The complete write-up of my presentation Strategy for the Future of Global Financial Services is now up.

The conference is organized by NDTV Convergence and Wipro. NDTV runs all of the online operations of NDTV, a diversified media company centered on its business TV channel. Wipro is one of the top three IT services companies in India – for each of Wipro, TCS, and Infosys financial services is their largest client sector.

Public sector banks and transformation to a true market economy

India has 23 public sector banks, which means they are owned at least 51% by the government. In most cases these are listed companies with a wide variety of investors. While it is now well over a decade since India began its transition from a largely nationalized economy, there is still a long way to go. There is unlikely to be large scale privatization for the foreseeable future, and in many sectors other than banking there remains major shifts required to move to open market attitudes and competitiveness.

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Keynote presentation: Creating the Future of Financial Services

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At the 2020 Vision Financial Services conference yesterday I promised I’d have the full content of my presentation here up within days. But my schedule means I probably won’t be able to get it up for a week or so, so for now I’ll just put up the slides. The usual warnings apply – my presentation slides are not meant to be meaningful by themselves, but to accompany my speech, so unless you were there, I suggest you wait until I do the full write up of the presentation.

[UPDATE:] The complete write-up of my presentation Strategy for the Future of Global Financial Services is now up.

The Future of Global Financial Services – Vision 2020 Mumbai September 2008

View SlideShare presentation or Upload your own. (tags: dawson ross)

24 hours in Mumbai – thought leadership seminar

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It’s an extremely busy two weeks. On top of many client deadlines I have four speaking engagements in Australia and one in India this week and next. I’m about to hop on a plane to Mumbai and will be there for 24 hours – unfortunately this time I have to get back as soon as possible though I have a long term plan to do a longer trip around the tech centers in India to speak and find out the best of what’s happening.

The event I’m speaking at has already got quite a lot of attention – see one of a series of press releases that have got on the web below, also from Dishtracking, Indian Television, India Infoonline etc.

At the seminar I will be coming back to one of my key themes – the future of financial services. I have developed a scenario framework for the event that I’ll share later on this blog. If we’re looking out to 2020, then we do need to take a scenario approach, as there are massive uncertainties ranging across geopolitics, the economy, industry structure, volatility, and how technology is applied. I will be extremely interested to hear what financial services leaders in Mumbai are saying, as the sector underpins how India is participating in the global economy. More on this later.

NDTV Convergence and Wipro announce the launch of Vision 2020- Financial Services Sector

India Infoline News Service

‘Mr. Ross Dawson’, internationally renowned keynote speaker and authority on business strategy will be in India to speak at ’Vision 2020- Financial Services Sector’- a thought leadership seminar by NDTV Convergence and Wipro Infotech, the India and Middle East arm of Wipro Ltd. Ross is the CEO of international consulting firm, Advanced Human Technologies, and Chairman of Future Exploration Network, a global events and strategy company.

The seminar will feature eminent speakers from the industry who will be sharing their perspectives on topics like the future of private and retail banking, mergers and acquisitions, and competition and challenges in the financial sector in the Year 2020.

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Keynote speech in India: The Future of Global Financial Services

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It has been several years now since I have been to India, where I last ran some executive workshops on high-value relationships for some of India’s largest companies. I will be back in Mumbai next week to deliver the keynote address on The Future of Global Financial Services at the Vision 2020 Financial Services conference, run by Wipro and NDTV Profit, the Indian business news channel. The speaker line-up includes the top executives of many of India’s major banks. I am the only international speaker.

NDTV_2020.jpg

The event is highly focused on the future, creating a vision of what the financial services sector will look like in 2020, and in particular the relationship between banks and their customers in a world transformed by economic growth, social change, and technology.

The overview of my keynote on the future of global financial services is:

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New SEC guidelines: blogs can be used for investor disclosure – CEO blogging to surge?

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The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has announced new guidelines (available in the next week or two) that will recognize the role of blogs in disclosing investor-sensitive information to the public.

Back in 2005 I wrote an update on the situation at the time on investor relations and blogging, and in 2006 I delivered the keynote at the Australian Investor Relations Association on the Future of Investor Relations, and wrote about SUN Microsystem’s CEO Jonathan Schwartz’s initiatives for blogging to be a recognized form of investor disclosure.

The SEC appears to be moving ahead at a swift pace, despite cries from some, particularly in the news release business, that the old system shouldn’t be changed. In fact the comments below from SEC Chairman Christopher Cox come from a podcast, transcribed by IRWebReport:

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Enterprise 2.0 in Financial Services: upcoming keynote

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I have long been interested in how collaboration technologies are applied in financial services, having come from a career largely at Merrill Lynch and Thomson Financial, and spent much time consulting to the instittutional financial services sector.

A few years ago now I ran the Collaboration in Financial Services conferences in New York and London, and wrote a white paper on How Collaborative Technologies are Transforming Financial Services. Since then I’ve been heavily involved in the Web 2.0 and Enterprise 2.0 spaces, and I’m finding that these are extremely relevant to the financial services sector.

I will be doing the opening keynote at this year’s annual Financial Services Technology forum on Enterprise & Web 2.0 for Financial Services in Sydney on 29 May. In my presentation I will look at the big picture of the history and relevance of these technologies in the sector, and drawing on my recent work helping organizations with the governance issues of Enterprise 2.0.

Financial services are certainly very diverse, however many of the sectors within it handily illustrate the themes I have been discussing for some time: there is a deep layer of highly process-driven work, supplemented by a layer of connecting expertise to make highly time-sensitive decisions. Enterprise 2.0 technologies and approaches are outstanding in supporting the latter, which is where there is the most potential for competitive differentiation – which can be very fleeting in the world of money.

I’ll provide more details later on what I cover in my keynote.

The coming segmentation of venture capital as an asset class

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There are countless guides to venture capital for budding entrepreneurs on the web. Marc Andreesen, the founder of the seminal VC success story Netscape and the recently launched Ning (an extremely interesting social networking platform), among many other ventures, has provided his own guide in a three part series:

Part 1: VC basics and what they look for

Part 2: Going deeper, including comparing VC firms

Part 3: Long-term perspectives, including why VCs continue to be successful today

The most interesting by far is Part 3, looking at long-term cyclicality in the industry, and how venture capital has become accepted as an asset class for professional investors. Over the last couple of decades I’ve spent in and around the capital markets, I’ve seen a number of “new” asset classes struggle for acceptance among institutional investors. Portfolio theory shows that if the investment performance of different asset classes are not fully correlated, you can get better returns for a given risk by including additional asset classes. As such, investors actively want to bring in new asset classes into their portfolios, but there are all sorts of hurdles to cross. High-yield debt, emerging markets debt, venture capital, hedge funds, and other investment vehicles have all gone through a process of being examined by trustees and committees, recommendations provided by asset consultants, eventual approval for small investments by innovative investors, and then larger allocations across most institutional investors. In the US, university endowments have substantially outperformed mutual funds and other institutional investors over the last decade or so, partly through being ahead of the pack in taking on new asset classes such as venture capital.

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Prepaid mobile airtime becomes currency in Africa – what happened to e-cash?

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Om Malik has a very interesting article on how pre-paid mobile minutes are effectively becoming a currency across Africa. I visited South Africa three times late last year while helping a large African media conglomerate to develop its long-term strategy. At the time I wrote about how mobiles are allowing Africa to leapfrog the fixed internet, and also about the potential and challenges of South Africa.

The majority of services in Africa are shifting to mobile phone interfaces, as close to a majority of people now have mobile phones – these are no longer luxuries for most people – while there are few other interfaces available for commerce. Even landline phones are often not available, let alone fixed internet or other interactive devices. As a result, mobile banking and a vast array of mobile services are taking off fast.

One of the greatest values of anything prepaid is that it can be exchanged. When local currencies have problems with inflation, availability of currency, institutional trust and so on, alternatives swiftly come to the fore. I certainly find it interesting that talk of e-cash, all the rage in the late 1990s, has now largely disappeared. One of the major uncertainties in the future is whether we ever finally get rid of the bits of paper and metal in our wallets that we exchange for goods and services. This is a major inefficiency in our lives. It would be so much easier to swipe or approve something. While there are potential privacy issues, it is possible to create completely untraceable e-cash. The primary reason e-cash went no further was that there were major vested interests stamping on the various alternative standards being proposed. It’s possible that something will emerge that people start using of their own accord, just as is happening with mobile airtime in Africa. Yet there are better ways of doing it. I think that within a decade e-cash will be firmly back on the agenda.