In question time after my keynote I was asked whether Facebook will still be the dominant social network in 5 years.
I think the degree of uncertainty on this front is too high to make a firm prediction. However given the current market landscape and trends over the last couple of years, the most likely outcome is that Facebook will still dominate.
In structured futures studies, one of the most powerful tools is trying to build plausible scenarios for how alternative outcomes to what is expected could come to pass.
In this case, we need to tell a credible story on how Facebook loses its predominant position in social networks.